518
FXUS65 KLKN 200851
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
151 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system passing to the south of the
region will help to increase shower and thunderstorm activity in
northeastern Nye and White Pine counties on Friday. Otherwise,
fair weather is in store for the rest of central and northern
Nevada as high pressure builds into the SW CONUS over the weekend.
Despite northwesterly winds behind the low pressure system colder
temperatures are not expected as the ridge builds in quickly and
daytime highs Friday and Saturday remain in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system slowly meandering through the
state of California early Friday morning will create enough
instability over the Silver State to promote scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity over central and eastern Nevada.
The low will pass to the south of the CWA through southern Nevada
on Friday. Southerly flow in the eastern flank of the trough will
push enough moisture up into central and eastern Nevada to
increase shower and thunderstorm activity over northeastern Nye
and White Pine counties Friday afternoon. Model disagreement on
how unstable the atmosphere will be for this convective area
remains as GFS downplays CAPE values (40-80 J/kg) while NAM holds
much better CAPE (100-300 J/kg) and LI (-2) over a larger spatial
area Friday evening. Moisture availability is a little more
consistent signaling PWAT values in the .40-.50 inch range Friday
afternoon. Convective activity will be mainly dry over that area
will minimal QPF probabilities in model guidance.

Despite northwesterly flow in the upstream flow of the trough over
the state by late Friday night into Saturday, temperature will not
nosedive as ridging builds quickly into the region by the low
pressure system. 500-mb heights begin to rise back into the 580s
by Saturday afternoon so the temperature drop associated with the
LPS will be negligible as high temperatures in the upper 70s
Friday only regress back into the low to mid 70s on Saturday.
Overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s will create areas of
frost for higher elevations both Friday and Saturday night. The
building ridge over the SW CONUS will signal fair weather for
Nevada through the rest of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Dry weather along with light west to northwest winds expected
this weekend. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows
in the mid 30s to lower 40s under partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. By early to mid next week, a ridge of high pressure builds
over the western U.S. Highs will warm into the upper 70s to lower
80s with lows in the 40s. The ridge axis will push eastward by
Thursday in response to a low pressure system moving into the west
coast. Warm and dry weather will persist over the region into
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24
hours. Sunny skies this morning give way to partly to mostly
cloudy skies this afternoon. There will be a 15% chance of
thunderstorms at KELY this afternoon and early evening and a 10%
chance at KTPH. Precipitation from any thunderstorms would be very
light, possibly only virga. The main concern would be gusty
outflow winds to 40 kts. Mostly sunny and dry over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A closed upper low pressure system in southern
California will be working its way east today, slowly moving
across into Arizona on Saturday. Central Nevada will be on the
northern fringes of this system. Limited moisture and instability
will help bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of
fire zones 425, 426, and 427 today and tomorrow. For the rest of
the area, look for partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds are
expected to remain light with occasional gusts to 20 mph in the
afternoon. The system will be east of the area on Saturday, with
high pressure slowly building in from the west. This will result
in seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. A weak upper level
trough may bring mid-clouds to portions of eastern Nevada late
Monday and Tuesday but computer simulations are in disagreement
with the timing and position. Even so, there doesn`t appear to be
any fire weather impacts seen at this time through next week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/EB/96/86