Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
311 FXUS65 KLKN 111932 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1232 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 * A warming trend is expected through next week. * Triple digit heat possible in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. * Low chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity Sunday through next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1222 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear across the forecast area. A warming trend is expected to persist through next week as high pressure strengthens over the western U.S. Highs will reach into the upper 90s to lower 100s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada on Sunday and Monday will run five to eight degrees above normal, increasing the risk for heat-related illnesses. A Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday through Monday, mainly along the I-80 corridor, and portions of central Nevada. Meanwhile, weak instability and mid-level moisture over the weekend will produce afternoon cumulus clouds. The next chance of dry thunderstorms (10-15%) will be primarily focused in northeastern Elko County Sunday and Tuesday afternoons as a weak upper-level disturbance approaches along the ID/NV border. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a warming trend though the weekend, with continued above normal temperatures early next week. Low confidence in any thunderstorm development early to mid next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours under mostly sunny and clear skies. Occasional afternoon gusts to 20KT are possible during the Saturday timeframe. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon relative humidity values for northern NV fire zones will only fall to near 20% Friday while zones 424/425/426/427 see RH values at or below 12%. The entirety of northern and central NV will dry out significantly over the weekend, however, as high pressure keeps available moisture shunted north of the state. The same high pressure will keep winds over all zones light into early next week. Sunday afternoon instability and moisture associated with a strengthening shortwave over southern ID will infiltrate far enough south over northeastern NV to create isolated dry thunderstorms for zones 438/469/470 through early evening. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86