Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
222 FXUS65 KLKN 090314 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 814 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 807 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 * Red Flag Warning Wednesday for Northeastern Nevada * Near triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through next Tuesday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through next Tuesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The Red Flag Warning for fire weather zones 425, 426, and 427 has been allowed to expire on time this evening as latest wind observations from remote sensing platforms show that wind speeds have slowed below red flag criteria. Winds will continue to ease through the evening. The Red Flag Warning for Wednesday remains in effect. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 807 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The forecast area will be situated between high pressure over the Desert Southwest and an upper-level area of low pressure just off the coast of California today and Tuesday. High temperatures this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. South to southwest wind gusts near 30 mph are expected in parts of Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Southwest wind gusts near 35 mph are anticipated in Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The aforementioned cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low pressure over Northern California Wednesday morning. This trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern Nevada Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Zonal flow aloft will prevail Thursday. A downward temperature trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday. An area of high pressure over Southern California will build northward Friday into early next week, resulting in a warming trend. High temperatures each afternoon Saturday through next Monday will be around five degrees above seasonal values, resulting in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses. Although heat events like this area relatively common and happen many times a year, heat-related impacts are possible for those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. Here are probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Sunday, July 13th, 2025: Winnemucca - 85% Battle Mountain - 65% Crescent Valley - 65% Gabbs - 55% Elko - 45% Carlin - 45% West Wendover - 45% Denio - 40% Tonopah - 25% Spring Creek - 10% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a critical risk of wildfires in the majority of Central Nevada today and Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence in an elevated risk of wildfires in most of Northern and Central Nevada Wednesday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding near triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada this weekend. Medium forecast confidence in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours. Gusts 25-30KT expected at KTPH and KELY through this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near and critical fire weather conditions today, with a Red Flag Warning in place for zones 424-425-427-438-469-470 tomorrow due to winds over 30 mph and single digit min RHs. Conditions are expected to return to just elevated status on Thursday and remain there for the rest of the week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ424-425-427-438-469-470. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94