209
FXUS65 KLKN 250829
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
129 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy and warm conditions are expected today as a
weak disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures cool
slightly Thursday but quickly warm back up into the 80s and even
lower 90s by Saturday across the area as a ridge remains in place
across the intermountain west. A cool down is expected next week
but dry conditions will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

A weak upper-level disturbance will bring increased winds from the
southwest to central and northern NEvada today. Wind speeds of
10-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph are expected in some places. A
few high clouds across far northwestern NEvada are expected but
otherwise dry conditions will remain. Temperatures cool by a few
degrees Thursday but will still be above normal in the 80s and
80s. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

Asymmetric Omega blocking pattern setting up just to our east
will last through the weekend as a strong upper level ridge over
the four corners, flanked by a weak upper trough off the
California coast, and a much stronger upper low over the Ohio
river valley. The reason for the asymmetry is that the stronger
low will cut off over the SE US after absorbing the remnants of
Helene, while the weaker trough off the west coast will be
absorbed back into the main flow across the northern tier by
Sunday. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be above normal
as highs will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s for highs and lows in
the mid 40s to low 60s. Winds will be light to breezy in the
afternoons running out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to
25 MPH possible. After Sunday, model disagreement persists but no
were near the as much as last nights runs. The GFS for the most
part has adopted the ECMWF solutions to a degree favoring a strong
ridge that as the upper trough off the California coast is
absorbed by the stronger westerly flow over the Pacific NW, will
allow the ridge to shift west. This will trigger the Omega block
to translate to a large scale west coast ridge east coast trough
pattern by Tuesday. It is during this reorganization that the
westerly flow may reach into Northern Nevada, Monday that will
push a weak cool front as far south as the US 50 corridor. While
still far from certain, this would cool temperatures beck into the
80s in the north while central NV remains in the low 90s. Before
the ridge re-asserts its strength by Wednesday. This will shift
the winds Sunday night into Monday out of the north at 10 to 20
MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. South of the front winds will remain
out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH. The one common
factor that will be persistent throughout the period will be for
quiet conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal forecast
sites for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be
light under mostly clear skies the rest of today. Winds increase
this afternoon with S-SW winds of 10-15 knots gusting 20-25
knots at times with lighter winds below 10 knots returning
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist with RH dropping into
the single digits this afternoon. A weak weather disturbance
passing through today will bring increased winds from the
southwest to portions of Nevada. The winds combined with the very
low RH will yield elevated fire weather condtions across much of
central and northern Nevada. Winds abate somewhat for the latter
half of the week but temperatures will remain warm along with
persistent dry conditions.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/98/98/93