Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
241 FXUS65 KLKN 100911 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 211 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures are expected to continue this week with thunderstorm chances however coming to an end Tuesday, as upper level low drifts south away from the Silver state allowing for a dry zonal flow pattern to develop by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Tuesday Upper level low which has been responsible for the thunderstorm chances over the last week will be fully cut off from the main upper flow by Monday evening. This low is forecast to remain over coastal southern California for the next few days. As this low cuts off the frontal zone that was associated with the system will be stalled over central NV as is forecast to dissipate Tuesday, but not before giving central NV another chance for an isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening. While thunderstorms are possible all along the US 50 corridor, the best chance at any moisture from storms will be restricted to eastern White Pine county as the best moisture in the mid levels will be concentrated there. As with the last few days the main hazards from the storms that do form will be gusty outflow winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall, and hail up to the size of quarters for the few wet storms that form. Tuesday will again see convective build ups across central NV but moisture levels will be insufficient for precipitation but some high based virga cant be ruled out. Temperatures continue to be warm for the start of the work week as highs will range in the upper 80 to upper 90s, and lows dropping into the low 50s to low 60s. Winds will light to breezy in the afternoons out of the west at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Winds in the evening to overnight will be light and variable. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday. A closed upper low looks to be situated along the coast of SoCal Wednesday with a zonal flow pattern over northern Nevada and a weak south/southwesterly flow over central Nevada thanks to the position of the upper low. This will make for dry weather and relatively benign conditions aside form the typical afternoon breezes. Afternoon cumulus can also be expected around the region with PWAT values remaining modest, currently progged to reside under 0.50 thru the weekend. Numerical guidance indicates that the closed low will progress inland Thursday while also weakening into an open wave. The wave is indicated to reside over the four corners region by Friday night. No appreciable change to the weather over northern and central Nevada is expected. A more potent trof and attendant surface cold front may move into the forecast area from the northwest in the Sunday night or Monday time frame, bringing stronger winds and higher probabilities of precipitation for at least northern Nevada. However, numerical solutions differ in timing and strength of this potential system with some solutions bringing the system thru Nevada as late as mid next week. Low confidence is expressed at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with light winds of 5-15 knots at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups will develop Monday afternoon and evening with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in portions of central and eastern NV. && .HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures are continuing to increase remaining snow-pack melt on mountain tops. Showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon will mostly confined to central NV ans are forecast to be mostly of the dry variety so a significant rain on snow situation is not expected. After Tuesday thunderstorm chances will be ending but the above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly rise but remain in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek near or above minor flood stage in the next several days. The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in action stage at least through today. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 98/92/90