149
FXUS65 KLKN 240824
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
124 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions along with above normal temperatures
will persist through the remainder of the week as high pressure
continues to grip the region. A passing disturbance will bring
increased southwest winds Wednesday but long term outlook remains
dry with cooler temperatures coming in for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night

Ridging over the region will shift south and east as a trough
enters the Pacific Northwest. However, the byproduct of broad
southwest flow ahead of the trough will be warmer temperatures
with highs today mainly in the lower 80s with upper 80s showing
up in lower valleys Wednesday. Lows will be in the 40s and some
lower 50s. Increased gradient wind Wednesday in response to trough
moving through Idaho will result in higher surface winds from the
southwest Wednesday afternoon of 10-20 mph with gusts around 25
mph.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

High Pressure will slowly shift East, yet it will remain the
dominant player in Silver State weather through the Saturday. A
strong early Fall subtropical ridge of high pressure will be
centered over the four corners Thursday. This ridge will be
flanked by a upper low to the east and a weak upper trough just of
shore of California. This will form a quasi-Omega blocking
pattern, that will be relatively short lived, only lasting through
Saturday potentially, due to an active polar Jet near the Pacific
NW. This setup will also place NV under SW flow which will keep
the region in a warming trend with light to breezy winds and
mostly clear skies. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be
above normal as highs will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s for highs
and lows in the mid 40s to low 60s. Winds will be light to breezy
in the afternoons running out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts
up to 25 MPH possible. After Saturday model agreement falls apart
as the weak Omega block breaks down. The GFS shows a strong upper
trough moving into the Pacific NW which will push a front through
NV Sunday into Monday. While any moisture associated with this
trough stays well to the north into Idaho, the front will bring a
cooler air mas that will see highs drop into the upper 60s to
upper 70s if it verifies. The ECMWF does not have this feature at
all in recent runs. It does show strong jet stream energy in the
Sunday to Tuesday time frame, however this flow is zonal, farther
to the north, with a stronger upper ridge that hold firm for the
SW US. Should this model verify it would keep NV under W to SW
flow and keep temperatures above normal through next Tuesday.
Adding to the uncertainty the CMC and the NBM also have diverging
solutions with the CMC favoring the ECMWF and the NBM favoring the
GFS. For now have favored the GFS and NBM with a cold front that
will pass through NV Sunday, but have hedged the temperatures a
bit only cooling highs into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday.
Also winds Sunday will shift to be out of the NW, but remain light
at speeds of 5 MPH to 10 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal forecast
sites for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be
light under mostly clear skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through the
remainder of the week. Poor overnight recoveries of 20-30% are
expected tonight across mid and upper-slope portions of central
and northern Nevada as a strong inversion sets up. RH values
during the day will be quite dry as well, below 10% in some
valleys but winds will remain light today. Increased southwest
winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday but
gusts are expected to remain below 30 mph in most areas. Dry
conditions will persist through the weekend along with warm
temperatures with a cool down expected next week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93