Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
742 FXUS65 KLKN 152025 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 125 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A trough moving into the western U.S. will bring several weather changes to Nevada through early next week. Breezy conditions will wane through tonight with gustier winds across the western half of Nevada late Sunday as a colder air mass begins to settle into the area. High temperatures by Monday will be in the mid 60s with some areas remaining in the 50s in northern Elko county. Freezing temperatures are possible across portions of northern Nevada beginning Sunday night and especially TUesday night. a few light rain showers are expected across far northern Nevada Monday with a few higher elevation snow showers but significant precipitation is not expected. A warming trend begins Tuesday, with high temperatures back up into the 90s by late next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. High level cloud cover filtering into the state from the west is signaling the next weather change for the state coming up for Sunday through Monday. Breezy winds from the west and northwest across the area will diminish tonight. An upper-level trough digging deeper into the northwestern U.S. will continue to usher in colder air into the the state tonight through Sunday night. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s along the ID/NV border and 40s farther south. Highs on Sunday will only rise into the 70s north of US-50. Gusty west to northwest winds along and ahead of a secondary cold front will develop late Sunday across portions of northwestern and west-central Nevada. This will bring even colder air into the area with lows Sunday night falling into the lower 30s across a good portion of northern Nevada north of I-80 and at least lower 40s into central Nevada. Some blowing dust is expected across portions of Humboldt County and Lander County Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. .LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday night Breezy northwest winds in the wake of a cold front along with temperatures in the 50s and 60s across northeastern Nevada will make it feel quite cool for summer. Quiet weather will be in store for the silver state as broad yet dry upper level trough gives way to near zonal flow. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be below normal temperature-wise as weakening NW flow aloft keeps a cooler air mass over NV with light winds. By Wednesday upper level flow shifts to more of a westerly flow as upper trough departs eastward allowing for quicker moderation of local air mass to solar heating. Thursday and Friday upper level flow shifts to be out of the SW allowing for temperatures to rise a bit faster, as a weak upper level trough approaches the west coast from the Pacific. This trough looks to pass through dry, with little impact to sensible weather other that a brief change in wind direction for the weekend. Temperatures will begin the week on the cool side in the upper 60s to upper 70s for Tuesday but will quickly moderate back into the upper 80s to upper 90s by Saturday. Overnight lows will also start cold in the upper 20s to mid 40s Tuesday morning warming back into the low 50s to 60s Saturday morning for most. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west with the occasional bend to the NW, with breezy winds Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. Wind speed do come down a bit as the week progresses at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Sunday. A dry cold front will be making its way across Nevada this evening with Westerly winds shifting to WNW, along this front will be elevated at speeds of 15KT to 25KT with a few gusts up to 35KT possible. Along with the winds haze and localized areas of blowing dust will be possible, briefly lowering visibility at area terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northwest winds associated a diffuse cold front will affect northern Nevada through the evening hours with rising relative humidity through tonight as colder air filters into northern Nevada. Temperatures will cool further Sunday with highs mostly in the 70s across the area. Winds along and ahead of another, stronger cold front will increase across the western half of the state Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Probabilities for wind gusts at or above 30 mph highest (up to 70% in higher elevations, 50% chance in valleys) across Humboldt, Lander and northwestern Nye counties in the evening. Daytime relative humidity will drop to critically low levels in many valleys Sunday afternoon creating elevated fire weather conditions for the late Sunday afternoon, early evening period. Diminishing winds, plummeting temperatures with possible frost/freeze conditions north of I-80 and rising relative humidity is expected across northern Nevada Sunday night. Breezy northwest winds will develop again on Monday but with much below normal temperatures and higher humidity in place along with a few rain and high elevation snow showers across northern Elko county with areas to the south remaining dry. A more widespread frost/freeze event is anticipated for Monday night into Tuesday morning with a warming trend beginning Tuesday under a lighter wind regime. && .HYDROLOGY...Back to back cold fronts tonight and Sunday night will drop temperatures considerably over the next 48 hours. Below average temperatures with highs in the 70s are expected Sunday, with even cooler temperatures on Monday with highs in the 60s. Lows will drop well into the 40s tonight with 30s near the ID/NV border. Colder temperatures, including freezing temperatures in areas of remaining snow pack Monday night into Tuesday morning will temporarily slow the melting process resulting in noticeable decline in flow in the smaller watersheds. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to remain in in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt at Comus is expected to gradually rise through early next week but remain in action stage. Minor flood stage could be reached by Monday night. Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will stay in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek near or above minor flood stage again this evening. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/98/98/93