561
FXUS65 KLKN 140854
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
154 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough moving through this weekend will
bring a short break in the heat with temperatures falling below
normal for the first half of the week. However Summer looks to
return by weeks end as temperatures climb back into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday

Upper level low currently making its way trough far southern
Nevada will lift over the four corners region as it slowly being
reabsorbed into the main upper level flow as it tops the southern
plains ridge. As this occurs it will place Nevada under SW flow
and broad troughing as a much colder upper trough approaches the
pacific NW. The first frontal passage is making its way through N
Nevada tonight and will clear the area by Friday morning. The air
mass behind this front is not too cool but will help keep
temperatures Friday afternoon a bit cooler that yesterday, but it
drop storm chances to near zero. Saturday looks to be quiet as
well as a much stronger cold front associated with the second
upper trough begins to make its way through this front will
enhance the winds Saturday afternoon for a bit but cooler
temperatures and rising humidity should keep any fire weather
concerns to a minimum. Temperatures continue to be warm, but not
as hot Friday as highs will range in the mid 80 to mid 90s.
Saturday afternoon the next front will be over central NV, highs
behind the front, across Elko, Humboldt, and N Lander and N Eureka
will range in the upper 60 to upper 70s. Ahead of the front,
temperatures will again reach the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight
lows will range from the low 50s to low 60s Saturday morning, to
the upper 30s to upper 40s. Winds will breezy Friday out of the
west a 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Saturday as
the front moves through winds will start westerly then shift WNW
at 10 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Sunday through Tuesday, a low pressure trough begins to move in
from the northwestern U.S. as the ridge heads east, bringing in
much cooler air towards the silver state and increasing chances
for weather.

Sunday is expected to still be dry, but have high
temperatures begin to cool into the 70s to 80s across central and
northern Nevada, with overnight lows dropping into the 40s to 50s
with some areas as low as the 30s. Afternoon westerly winds
expected to increase at 10-20 mph.

Overnight and into Monday morning the upper level trough is
expected to increase chances for isolated showers for northern
Nevada between 10-35% while central Nevada remains below 10%. High
temperatures expected to be much cooler reaching into the 50s to
60s for northern Nevada and central Nevada in the 60s to low 80s.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s across much of
central and northern Nevada, and snow levels are expected to drop
below 7000 feet, however, confidence is low on whether higher
terrain and mountain tops getting some snow. Afternoon winds
expected to increase to 20-25 mph, gusts 35 mph, from the west.

Tuesday, chances of isolated rain shifts towards northeast in the
morning as the low pressure system moves northeast, leaving
chances between 15-25% in northeast Elko. By Tuesday afternoon,
the chances are expected to diminish, leaving quiet weather.
Temperatures expected to return to a warming trend with highs back
into the 60s to 70s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
Winds expected to be calmer with afternoon westerly breezes
reaching at 10-15 mph in central Nevada.

Wednesday through Friday, calmer weather is expected as models are
showing near zonal flow. Temperatures still expected to stay on a
warming trend with Wednesday highs in the 70s and by Friday, highs
back into the 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures also expected to
increase starting in the 40s to 50s Wednesday and back into the
50s to 60s on Friday. Wednesday winds expected to be calm at 10
mph or lower, with Thursday and Friday winds expected to increase
in the afternoons from the south at 10-15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at
all terminals with afternoon breezes in place across the region
today. Look for west/southwesterly gusts of 20KTS to 30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures will continue Friday as
highs range in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low humidity in the 10%
range as well as a slight up tick in winds Friday will keep fire
concerns elevated, but the chances of thunderstorms either dry or
wet will be near zero Friday afternoon. Saturday through midweek
will see a series of cold fronts make there way across Nevada,
while this will bring elevated W to NW winds across the area, much
cooler temperatures ans higher surface humidity will help mitigate
fire weather concerns through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...One more day of above normal temperatures and increased
melting of the remaining snow-pack at high elevations remains for
Friday. A series of cold fronts is forecast to move through NV,
pushed by a strong upper level trough that will drop temperatures
below normal. These fronts begin moving through Saturday and this
pattern will last through Wednesday. This cooling will help reduce
melting rates and ease flooding concerns for the weekend into
midweek.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage in the next several days.

The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in
action stage at least through today.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/97/92/98