Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
132 FXUS65 KLKN 172136 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 236 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Progressive cold front exits the forecast area this evening with a much colder air mass left in its wake. Temperatures widespread below freezing are forecast tonight and protection will be needed for sensitive plants and crops. Warming trend expected into the weekend with relatively benign weather aside form the typical afternoon breezes. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Progressive cold front exits the forecast region to the east this evening with breezes also easing across the region and skies clearing across northern Nevada. Main concern tonight will be the post frontal cold air mass that will be residing over the region. Widespread frost and sub freezing temperatures will be present tonight and frost advisories, freeze warnings, and hard freeze warnings are currently issued across most of the forecast region. Low temperatures by early Tuesday morning look to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s for most, and some of the typical cold spots in the valleys may manage a reading or two in the low 20s. Protection will be needed for sensitive plants and crops across most of the forecast region. Warming trend begins Tuesday as long wave troffing resides over the western U.S. and heights begin increasing. Daytime high temperatures are forecast in the low 60s to low 70s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 30s to low 40s with upper 20s expected in the typical colder valleys. As such, a frost advisory has been issued for portions of the forecast region Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. A weak impulse moving into northern Nevada from Idaho will bring a 15% probability of rain and snow showers in the afternoon, primarily over the Jarbidge Wilderness. Some instability looks to be present though PWATs are progged to be quite low given the cold dry air mass influencing the region. Any accumulation will be less than 0.10. Dry weather is expected elsewhere under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light across the region. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday Temperatures will be on the rise but still below normal starting out in the 30s Wednesday morning as a diffuse trough axis remains over the western U.S. Areas of frost are still expected. Highs Wednesday will remain below normal in the 70s and 80s. Trough axis deepens Thursday allowing a more south-southwesterly flow aloft to bring in higher level moisture into eastern Nevada Thursday. Chances of rain remain below 10% but cloud cover could be widespread. A shortwave will push remaining moisture east of the state on Friday with the warming trend continuing. Highs on Friday could reach the 90s once again with lows only in the 50s. Winds will be light and mainly terrain driven through Saturday. A trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will increase winds for the area early next week but dry conditions are expected to prevail with above normal temperatures returning. && .AVIATION...A strong cold front moving through the state will bring gusty winds to all TAF sites through the early evening hours. The strongest northwest winds will be at KTPH where gusts could approach 40 knots into late afternoon. Some blowing dust/haze observed on GOES satellite imagery could bring a period of reduced visibility to KPTH through the evening hours but should remain in the VFR category. Mid-level cloud cover associated with the front along with wind speeds will diminish overnight. Rain and snow showers associated with the cold front will stay north of I-80 through this afternoon with shower activity waning this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...Cold front exits the forecast region to the east this evening with gusty northwest winds easing thru the evening as well. Widespread sub freezing temperatures expected tonight across the majority of central and northeastern Nevada where temperatures in the colder valleys will fall into the low 20s to low 30s. A gradual warming trend begins tomorrow and lighter winds are forecast aside form the typical afternoon breezes. Daytime high temperatures look to be in the upper 80s to upper 90s for most valleys by Saturday with minimum RHs less than 15%. && .HYDROLOGY...Cold, sub-freezing temperatures will suppress high elevation snowmelt tonight into tomorrow in faster responding mountain streams such as Lamoille Creek. The mainstem Humboldt River near Battle Mountain and Comus will continue with elevated flows for the next several days but minor flood stage is not expected to be reached. Dry conditions are expected this week with a warming trend beginning Tuesday. The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain is expected to continue to recede, falling below action stage Tuesday. The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to continue to rise through midweek but remain in action stage before a declining trend starts late this week. Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday ABOVE 1000 FEET in Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County... Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County. Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday ABOVE 1000 FEET in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko County. Frost Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PDT Wednesday Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday ABOVE 1000 FEET in Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County... Southwest Elko County...White Pine County. && $$ 92/93/93/92/93