984
FXUS65 KLKN 191945
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1245 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet conditions continue with increasing high
temperatures through the weekend and into next week. Highs will
once again be in the 90s by Friday and 5-10 degrees above normal
for this time of year.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Thursday night.

This afternoon, current observations are showing much of the area
under clear skies with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Some
high cirrus clouds are currently over areas of White Pine county.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the upper
70s to lower 80s later this afternoon. Light and variable winds
are also expected through this afternoon. Lows tonight will be warmer
than the previous two nights, in the mid to upper 40s. 500-decameter
heights will slowly rise as the trough over the region slowly
meanders north through Friday. Southerly winds will pick up in the
afternoon Thursday and be breezy across central Nevada. Winds of
10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are possible with stronger gusts
along exposed ridgetops of central Nevada. With warm air
advection funneling in warmer air from the south, high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to near 90 in
some areas Thursday. Lows will also be warmer, in the 50s for
most.


.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

Friday, the trough that was over Nevada begins to weaken do to a
combination of an incoming low west of British Columbia, and the
progression of the tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto,
currently in the western Gulf of Mexico. The tropical remnants
may make it as far north and west as central Utah, but petters
out after that. Friday afternoon may see an isolated dry
thunderstorm or two across central and eastern Elko, as well as
potions of White Pine County, however the current probability of
these storms is around 5-10% so no weather is reflected in the
forecast. A more likely scenario is convective or cumulus build-
ups that may result in gusty and erratic winds given model
soundings from Ely showing DCAPE of 1300J/kg available along with
an inverted-V type sounding. Highs Friday afternoon are
forecasted in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the 50s.

Saturday, the upper level trough continues to weaken as a
4-corners-high begins to develop late Saturday over the AZ-NM
area, before strengthening each day through mid-week. With a four-
corners-high developing to our southwest, Nevada looks to stay dry
through mid-week. Highs will continue to be in the 90s to near
100 in some valley locations. Though not quiet record highs, these
temperatures in the 90s to near 100 will be some 5-10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Lows each night will generally
remain in the 50s. The exception is Southwestern Elko county,
including the city of West Wendover, where day time temperatures
in the upper 90s and night time lows in the low to mid 70s
Saturday through Wednesday, may present some degree of heat risk
to the public. Condtions will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions at all terminals this
afternoon, with increasing clouds. Winds generally remain in the 5-12kt
range, with gusts to 15kts over northern NV and up to 20kts
across central NV. Thursday, VFR conditions continue, with
increasing clouds in the afternoon. Winds will generally remain in
the 5-15 kt range with gusts to 15 kts over northern NV and 20-25
kts across central, NV.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The pattern this afternoon through Friday will be
increasing clouds each afternoon, diminishing clouds overnight,
with temperatures trending warmer. At this time dry conditions are
expected each of these days, though there is a 5-10% chance of
isolated dry thunderstorms Friday afternoon over mainly portions
of zones 469, 470 and eastern portions of 425. For now however
thunderstorms are not in the forecast on Friday (or any day
through the middle of next week). Well above normal temperatures
this weekend and into next week, with 90s to possibly low 100s in
valley locations. Fuels will continue to cure as warm (to very
warm) and dry conditions persist this weekend and into next week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...The recent stretch of cool temperatures has slowed
the rate of high elevation snowmelt, which has in turn reduced
the flow on creeks and rivers coming off snow covered higher
terrain. Temperatures will now be trending warmer the rest of the
week, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next
week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher
terrain are expected late this week, but for now not expecting any
new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished.

The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus will continue with elevated
flows for the next several days but minor flood stage is not
expected to be reached.

Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will remain in action
stage for the next several days.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/91/91/91