Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
221 FXUS65 KLKN 161936 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few severe thunderstorms are possible in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, resulting in periods of precipitation. Precipitation ahead of the next storm system may begin to overspread the service area Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night An upper-level area of low pressure will move northeastward over Northeastern Nevada tonight. A few severe thunderstorms are conceivable in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be locally damaging wind gusts near 60 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. Thunderstorm probabilities this afternoon into this evening vary from 30 to 40 percent in Elko and Eureka Counties to 20 to 30 percent in White Pine and Lander Counties to 10 to 20 percent in Humboldt County. Strong, gusty southerly winds are expected in Northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties this afternoon into this evening. Blowing dust will reduce visibilities at times. Travel will be difficult, particularly for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties until 8 PM PDT this evening. The aforementioned cyclone aloft will move northeastward from Northeastern Nevada into Eastern Idaho Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be seventeen to nineteen degrees below normal for this time of year. Precipitation ahead of the next storm system could begin to overspread the service area Tuesday night. Here are probabilities of one tenth of an inch of rain or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada this evening through Tuesday afternoon: McDermitt - 100% Owyhee - 97% Winnemucca - 96% Jackpot - 96% Battle Mountain - 90% Austin - 90% Elko - 88% Wells - 61% Eureka - 60% West Wendover - 35% A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Northern Elko County Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. Thunderstorm probabilities Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening vary from 20 to 30 percent in Northern Elko County to 10 to 20 percent in Southern Elko, White Pine, Eureka, and Lander Counties. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday A trough of low pressure and cold front will bring the next round of widespread showers and thunderstorms along with breezy winds Wednesday through Friday afternoon. Storm total amounts will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain in central NV. Highs this week will cool into upper 50s to lower 60s with lows in the mid 30s under mostly cloudy skies. As the trough exits the region, a zonal flow pattern and dry weather returns for the weekend. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION... A low pressure system over the region will bring another round of rain and thunderstorms for portions of northern and central NV. There is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms today for all TAF sites with gusty outflow winds to 50 mph possible. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms expected to diminish later this evening with scattered showers lingering over portions of northern NV, including KWMC and KBAM tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low pressure system will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, resulting in periods of precipitation. Expect strong and erratic wind gusts in and near any thunderstorm this afternoon into this evening. The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon, resulting in periods of precipitation. Precipitation could linger in the service area Friday, before dry weather returns this weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Northeastern Nye County...White Pine County. && $$ 87/90/90/87