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FXUS63 KLMK 081917
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend, with extended
    breaks in the rain expected. Locally heavy downpours possible
    late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across western and
    southern Kentucky.

*   Temperatures will begin a warming trend Tuesday, with 90 degrees
    a possibility by late week, especially Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Despite the radar returns across the region most of the day,
abnormally dry air in the lower levels have evaporated most light
rain before reaching the ground. Will continue to carry a low chance
for light rain, but the latest ACARS data from SDF continues to
show a rather dry airmass in the lowest 3km.

For tonight, a mid-level wave will push a cold front into the lower
Ohio Valley from the north. Weak forcing and convergence along the
front may lead to some isolated light showers north of I-64 after
midnight. However, even better moisture convergence and stronger
forcing to our west will likely fire up convection across Missouri
again tonight, moving to the east-southeast through the overnight
hours.

Still expecting the bulk of the convective cluster to track
into central Tennessee in the early morning hours, but the northern
flank of showers and embedded thunderstorms look to push through
south-central KY. Moisture pooling along the boundary will help
erode the low level dry air by tomorrow morning, which will follow
by high PWATs possibly exceeding 1.8 inches. Soundings also show
tall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy downpours and embedded thunder
looks like a good bet for areas south of the Kentucky Parkways
tomorrow morning. To the north, light to moderates showers will be
possible, though those chances really fall off when you get north of
I-64 due to the front sagging southward by the middle of the day.

Eventually the cold will continue to surge south of our area by the
evening, and will pull the precip chances to the south with it.
While majority of the forecast area will see drier trends throughout
the day, PoPs will linger the longest across south-central
Kentucky. Eventually we`ll be precip free by the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

First part of the week will be marked by a deep closed low over the
Canadian Maritimes, with broad upper trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Northerly low-level flow will feed dry and cool (by almost
mid-June standards) air into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Sfc
high settles into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but heights start to
slowly rise by then as the upper flow flattens out. Still expect
temps solidly below normal Monday and Tuesday, with highs barely
cracking 80 on Tuesday and lows in the 50s through Tuesday night,
even in the urban heat island of Louisville.

Warming trend begins on Wednesday as we get into very weak return
flow, but the Gulf doesn`t really open up yet. Temps could make a
run at 90 on Thursday, but it`s more likely to be Friday before we
see enough moisture return to support any convection.

Look for more of a summer feel Friday and Saturday, even with a weak
cold front dropping into Illinois and Indiana. Daytime highs will
be close to 90 each day, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and diurnal
slight chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

First round of scattered light rain showers will continue for this
afternoon, but should see a drier trend develop by late afternoon
and evening. VFR conditions will continue for the first half of the
period, but ceilings will continue to gradually lower tonight as a
cold front approaches. There will be a second round of rain
overnight or early tomorrow morning, where BWG has the highest rain
chances. Confidence is much lower for the other terminals. As the
frontal boundary arrives, we`ll see ceilings dip into MVFR for a
brief period tomorrow morning. Afterwards, ceilings will improve
back to VFR as get into the early afternoon hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CJP