Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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456 FXUS63 KLMK 081917 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend, with extended breaks in the rain expected. Locally heavy downpours possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across western and southern Kentucky. * Temperatures will begin a warming trend Tuesday, with 90 degrees a possibility by late week, especially Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Despite the radar returns across the region most of the day, abnormally dry air in the lower levels have evaporated most light rain before reaching the ground. Will continue to carry a low chance for light rain, but the latest ACARS data from SDF continues to show a rather dry airmass in the lowest 3km. For tonight, a mid-level wave will push a cold front into the lower Ohio Valley from the north. Weak forcing and convergence along the front may lead to some isolated light showers north of I-64 after midnight. However, even better moisture convergence and stronger forcing to our west will likely fire up convection across Missouri again tonight, moving to the east-southeast through the overnight hours. Still expecting the bulk of the convective cluster to track into central Tennessee in the early morning hours, but the northern flank of showers and embedded thunderstorms look to push through south-central KY. Moisture pooling along the boundary will help erode the low level dry air by tomorrow morning, which will follow by high PWATs possibly exceeding 1.8 inches. Soundings also show tall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy downpours and embedded thunder looks like a good bet for areas south of the Kentucky Parkways tomorrow morning. To the north, light to moderates showers will be possible, though those chances really fall off when you get north of I-64 due to the front sagging southward by the middle of the day. Eventually the cold will continue to surge south of our area by the evening, and will pull the precip chances to the south with it. While majority of the forecast area will see drier trends throughout the day, PoPs will linger the longest across south-central Kentucky. Eventually we`ll be precip free by the evening. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 First part of the week will be marked by a deep closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, with broad upper trofiness over the eastern CONUS. Northerly low-level flow will feed dry and cool (by almost mid-June standards) air into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Sfc high settles into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but heights start to slowly rise by then as the upper flow flattens out. Still expect temps solidly below normal Monday and Tuesday, with highs barely cracking 80 on Tuesday and lows in the 50s through Tuesday night, even in the urban heat island of Louisville. Warming trend begins on Wednesday as we get into very weak return flow, but the Gulf doesn`t really open up yet. Temps could make a run at 90 on Thursday, but it`s more likely to be Friday before we see enough moisture return to support any convection. Look for more of a summer feel Friday and Saturday, even with a weak cold front dropping into Illinois and Indiana. Daytime highs will be close to 90 each day, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and diurnal slight chance POPs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 First round of scattered light rain showers will continue for this afternoon, but should see a drier trend develop by late afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will continue for the first half of the period, but ceilings will continue to gradually lower tonight as a cold front approaches. There will be a second round of rain overnight or early tomorrow morning, where BWG has the highest rain chances. Confidence is much lower for the other terminals. As the frontal boundary arrives, we`ll see ceilings dip into MVFR for a brief period tomorrow morning. Afterwards, ceilings will improve back to VFR as get into the early afternoon hours tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...CJP