362
FXUS63 KLMK 062305
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
705 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Less humid air arrives tonight in the wake of a cold front.
    Beautiful Friday expected with afternoon highs near 80 degrees.

*   Scattered light rain showers will be possible late Saturday
    afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This Afternoon and Evening....

A sfc cold front is sinking southeast through the Lower OH Valley
this afternoon, marked by a wind shift and notable low-level
moisture gradient. Despite drier air aloft, lingering moisture below
700 mb is resulting in an expanding SCT-BKN cumulus field roughly
north of the WK/BG Pkwys. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
modest sfc convergence may yield slightly taller cu and a few
showers, most likely across the Bluegrass Region through this
evening. Vertical growth will be limited by a significant warm layer
above 700 mb, and the chance for a thunderstorm is only around 10%.
The presence of this capping inversion has been confirmed by
multiple SDF ACARS soundings. Most will stay dry with temperatures
topping out in the low to mid 80s.

Tonight and Friday...

Skies clear tonight as drier air filters in from the northwest. Sfc
dewpoints are forecast to drop through the 50s, which will make for
a pleasantly refreshing start to Friday. Expect clear skies with
morning temps in the mid 50s to near 60.

Friday will feature continued dry NW flow and upper level height
rises. Ridging will be centered off to our southwest, with breezy NW
winds developing as low-level mixing deepens. Sfc winds will slacken
late in the day. Again, it will be noticeably less humid with sfc
dewpoints dipping into the upper 40s/lower 50s. Look for plenty of
sunshine with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Dry and tranquil conditions are expected Friday night as high
pressure continues to move through the region.  Lows will dip mid-
upper 50s with some of the valley locations dipping into the lower
50s.  By Saturday, northwest flow will continue aloft and a cold
front will approach the region late in the day on Saturday bringing
a chance of rain to areas west of I-65.  Better chances of rainfall
look to occur Saturday night and into the day on Sunday as the front
pushes through the region.  Model proximity soundings continue to
show limited instability across the region during this period. There
could be some elevated instability in spots, so a rumble or two of
thunder can`t be ruled out.  However, the threat of severe weather
is very low at this time.  Highs on Saturday will be in the upper
70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.  Highs Sunday
will be slightly cooler given anticipated clouds/precip with highs
in the upper 70s.  Lows Sunday night will dip back into the mid 50s.

Monday through Thursday...

Moving into next week, dry weather will return to the region.
Initially we`ll be in a northwest flow regime, but troughing will
set up across the eastern US as well as the upper-central Plains
which will result in localized ridging over the Ohio Valley. By
Wed/Thu, the Plains trough will push eastward and push across the
Ohio Valley.  Moisture return ahead of this system does not look
overly impressive and the overall probability of precipitation looks
to be less than 15%.  The overall pattern suggested by the dynamical
models agrees well with the 6-10 day CPC guidance which shows drier
than normal conditions across the Ohio Valley with cooler than
normal temperatures for early-mid June.  Highs Monday and Tuesday
look to warm into the upper 70s to around 80.  Wednesday and
Thursday should see slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the
low-mid 80s.  Overnight lows Mon/Tue night will be in the 50s with
overnight lows in the 60s expected for Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Clouds will gradually decrease in coverage and give way to clear
skies as cooler and drier air work their way in from the northwest
behind a cold front tonight. Winds will slacken a bit as the
nocturnal inversion builds in, but will pick up within a few hours
of sunrise as the boundary layer mixes out. Gusts tomorrow in the
late morning to afternoon hours could exceed 20kts at times. A
scattered 5-7kft cu-field will also likely develop in this
timeframe.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DM