Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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845 FXUS63 KLMK 100439 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1239 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and isolated thunderstorms over south-central Kentucky ending before sunset. * Below normal temperatures and humidity Monday and Tuesday, followed by a warming trend with hot and dry conditions likely for late this week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Sfc cold front is near the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways as of 18Z, and slowly but surely making its way southward through the Commonwealth. Mid-level impulse has triggered a cluster of moderate showers with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms, currently moving through south-central Kentucky. Mesonet observations show up to 1 inch of rain in 3 hrs, not enough to support any significant flooding. Could continue to see scattered showers across southern Kentucky until around sunset, after which the cold front should be far enough south to keep any additional precip down across the Tennessee Valley. Northerly flow ahead of building high pressure will be just enough to advect dry low-level air into the Ohio Valley tonight. Even as sfc winds decouple, expect the dry air to win out and limit any fog formation to the valleys. Cool pattern continues on Monday with another vort lobe swinging through the broad eastern CONUS upper trof. Synoptic models are trying to spit out some light QPF, but think the impact will be limited to diurnal Cu. Temps solidly below normal, with mins tonight in the 50s and Monday highs in the mid/upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Dry weather will prevail throughout the long term period, however we will see temperatures creep up into the 90s by late-week. Upper flow aloft will become more zonal for the mid-week after an East Coast trough pushes out to sea. Sfc high pressure will dominate the region for several days, with rather dry columns and subsidence keeping us dry and rain-free. Temperatures will reach the 90s for Thursday and into the weekend as sfc high pressure shifts to our east and promotes a warm return flow into the region. On Friday, a low-amplitude upper shortwave in the northern stream will ride across the US/Canada border, and will essentially push a cold front southward through the Ohio Valley. However, the sfc high to our southeast will have enough dry air in place to erode PoPs just to our north. The hot weather will continue into the weekend with highs in the low 90s. Fortunately, our dewpoints will be in the low 60s, so heat indices will not exceed the mid-90s. We`ll be fortunate to have those dewpoints for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 to 30 hours. Mostly clear skies tonight will be replaced with cumulus during the day tomorrow. Winds will ease tonight before increasing out of the north- northwest tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...MK