Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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498 FXUS63 KLMK 120529 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 129 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Below normal temps and humidity today followed by a warming trend with hot and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. * Heat illnesses possible Sunday and Monday, especially for those with heat sensitivities and those without adequate cooling / hydration. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Current forecast remains on track with only minor changes to account for latest observations. Another quiet and relatively cool night as surface high pressure and dry airmass favors radiational cooling. Finally, best chances of patchy fog will be across the Bluegrass and south central Kentucky where dewpoints will be higher. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Clear skies and temperatures across the region during the early afternoon between the upper 60s to low 70s, which is slightly warmer than temperatures yesterday at this time. Highs today are still slated for the mid to upper 70s, which is between 5 and 10 degrees below normal for mid June. For tonight, high pressure continues to dominate our local weather with mostly clear skies and lows dipping back into the low-mid 50s. A few of the valley locations will likely drop back into the upper 40s once again for some chances of patchy fog. High pressure continues Wednesday with clear skies and warming temperatures returning closer to normal into the low to mid 80s (between 5 and 7 degrees warmer than today/Tuesday). Light and variable winds will slowly be returning to the south for light warm air advection. Dew points will be increasing by about 10 degrees from today/Tuesday, so a slightly more "humid" feel for Wednesday. An air quality alert is in effect for unhealthy and sensitive groups for Wednesday for southern Indiana and the Louisville Metro counties in Kentucky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Large scale patterns over our neck of the woods look fairly consistent in deterministic and ensemble model runs. Cluster analysis over the mid- and long-range forecast over the Ohio Valley show basically no differences between the clusters, indicating higher confidence in the placement of large-scale features across the region. Wednesday night to Thursday weak troughing aloft over the Deep South will head east as a large ridge of high pressure drifts from the Desert SW into the central and southern Plains Friday and then over our area Sunday/Monday. What that means for us is a steady increase in temperatures through the work week and Saturday. Then as that ridge gets right over us Sunday/Monday, low-level thicknesses increase quickly and southerly winds will allow for more moisture to come in as well. That combination will help to bring up Heat Indices as well as, our first heat wave of the season so far. Given the shock from the recent below normal temperatures, went ahead with some messaging to partners about this sudden change, which could cause issues to heat- sensitive groups. Only other sensible weather to deal with is a slight chance for measurable rain as a weakening cold front approaches the area Friday morning. Grand Ensemble models show 30/100 models with some measurable precip over our southern IN and northern KY counties, but NBM has come in with 5-10 pops. Again, this is not a lot of rain, as the line should be weakening, but worth a mention in the public forecast. Next chance for precip could come with some pulse storms developing in the warm/humid airmass Monday afternoon. Some capping likely will be in place, but cannot rule out an isolated storm developing in what looks to be an airmass with precipitable waters getting at least to the 75th percentile. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Thanks to a large area of sfc high we remain locked into nice, mainly clear weather with VFR flight categories through the forecast period. There are a few high clouds associated with a disturbance over TX but other than that it will remain quiet with light and generally light winds. May see more of a southerly flow around BWG but generally light and variable to calm through the remainder of the overnight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ UPDATE...ALL SHORT TERM...MCK LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...BTN