Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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285 FXUS63 KLMK 260531 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 131 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Severe storms possible Sunday into Sunday night. Main hazard is damaging winds with localized hurricane-force gusts possible. Tornadoes, large hail, and flooding cannot be ruled out either. * Unsettled pattern will continue into Monday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Overall, a fairly quiet evening was in progress across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Only convection was a small storm over Bourbon/Nicholas counties which will continue to move off to the east over the next hour. Appears that we had a boundary that dropped southward across northern KY this evening. It was detectable by radar and winds shifted to the north behind the boundary. Dewpoints on either side of the boundary were not all that different, but many sites saw a small drop in temperatures as the boundary slid through. For the overnight period, it looks to be a quiet night as we wait for convection from the Plains and lower MO valley to move in from the west. That looks to occur well after sunrise tomorrow. We`ll see some mid-high level cloudiness spread in from the west as that convection approaches. Lows tonight will be in the mid-upper 60s. Remainder of the forecast remains generally unchanged for Sunday. It appears that we`ll be seeing a couple of lines of storms coming across the region. The first looks to come through mid-late morning tomorrow with a second line coming through Sunday evening. The first line will have some instability to work with and will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and perhaps some marginal hail. Uncertainty increases after that line goes through as it is not overly clear how much instability will be taken out by the first line and if the atmosphere will recover. Model soundings do show substantial reductions in SBCAPE and MLCAPE. However, we may have a bit of elevated CAPE to deal with in the mid- late afternoon that could support elevated convection ahead of the second line (like the 18Z HRRR suggests). The second line will then surge through here in the mid-late evening with a damaging wind threat. There will likely be continued shifts in the CAM guidance tonight and into early Sunday as they start to better initialize on what the convection across MO does overnight. We`ll continue to monitor and evaluate that data overnight. Folks should continue to stay vigilant and be prepared for an active weather day across the region tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 348 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 We continue to focus on the severe weather potential for tomorrow which continues to transition as it comes into better focus. A few days ago when global models were the only models to have Sunday in range, hodographs looked ominous. There was a lot of synoptic forcing, tons of instability, and high levels of shear at all levels. Tornadoes looked favorable. Then, as the NAM picked up on Sunday, it showed one or two line segments extending south out of central Indiana into southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, but it wasn`t too impressive. Now that the CAMs have had multiple runs that have captured tomorrow`s events, the forecast continues to get fine tuned. Every model doesn`t agree on the exact timing, but the general idea is pretty strong among the models. Tonight, upper flow is mostly zonal. There is a little bit of a trough over the Southern Rockies and a little ridging over New England. Extending south from near Chicago, surface high pressure extends through Kentucky while a surface low sits over western Kansas, and as upper flow begins to push the surface low east to east-northeast, the system is expected to send a line of convection over the Plains. By Sunrise, the line is expected to be crossing the Ozarks and Midwest as it surges towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Around 15-16z Sunday morning, the line is expected to begin impacting the western edge of the CWA. As it will be late morning, there could still be some low level stability. Low level lapse rates are marginal in the 7.5 C/km range, but the main driving force at this time will be the system`s cold pool. After the line has traveled all night, the cold pool is expected to be ahead of the main line. This could help to decay the line as it moves west to east over the CWA, but as it begins to enter areas on the the eastern side of the CWA, including the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions, some afternoon heating could help increase lapse rates to 8.5 C/km or more. This could help to intensify the line into the later afternoon. The line is expected to be near Louisville around 17-18z and east of the CWA by around 20-21z. The main thing this line has working for it is instability. MLCAPE values ahead of the line will begin in the 2,000 J/kg range and increase to around 2,500 J/kg over southern Indiana and up to 2,700 J/kg over southern Kentucky. MUCAPE values will begin around 2,500 J/kg and increase to near 3,300 J/kg. Low level shear is only marginal with 0-1km SRH around 90. A tornado can`t be ruled out, but chances are fairly low. The main threat will be gusty winds from the storms downdrafts. With the high levels of instability, the strongest cores could also produce hail. Another concern will be flash flooding. With all the rain we have had lately, mainly over southern Kentucky, flash flood guidance is low. Don`t believe the north to south oriented line will cause too many flooding issues as the dwell time over any one spot will be limited. There is a chance, mainly over southern Kentucky. That some storms could develop behind the line and drop to the south, so if any location gets multiple rounds or sees training storms over the same area, flash flooding will likely occur. With the first line of convection outrunning the surface low, a second line is expected to develop early tomorrow night just ahead of the low. It could begin to enter our Indiana counties by around 4z Monday, and Kentucky counties an hour or two later. This second line won`t be as mature as the first line, so the convection should stay on the leading edge of the convection which could help overcome the near surface inversion given the time of day. It also looks like instability could be more limited, but low level shear will be much higher with this second wave. 0-1km SRH will approach 400 under a 50 knot low level jet. The high LCLs above 1km and stable low levels are reasons against tornado development, but strong low level shear in a convective environment could help to produce a spin-up. Believe the chances for a tornado will be greater in this second line compared to the first line, but gusty winds will be the main threat. The threat of hail will be less in the second line given the much lower instability. The line will likely begin to dissipate before the line exits the CWA by at least 9z. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 348 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Monday through Tuesday Night... Surface cold front is still forecast to push through the region during the day on Monday which will bring an end to the severe threat locally. Now the upper level trough axis will remain across the region, so some convective redevelopment is likely during the afternoon across the region. Some stronger storms can`t be ruled out across our east during the afternoon. Highs on the day will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Breezy conditions will be seen as well on Monday with sustained winds of 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph at times. Drier air will filter into the region by Monday night and dry/tranquil weather is expected through the remainder of this forecast period. Lows Monday night will be upper 50s to around 60. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 50s. Wednesday through Saturday... Upper trough axis will push east of the region by Wednesday and heights will gradually build into the day on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the pattern looks to become a bit more blocked as the east coast trough closes off and becomes a closed low just south of Maine. Another shortwave trough axis will be pushing through the Plains, while the Ohio Valley remains in a sharp but narrow ridge axis. Overall, the pattern for Wednesday through Friday supports dry weather conditions. Within the southwest flow by Saturday, we could see some isolated/scattered storms fire, though the best potential for rainfall looks to hold off until late Saturday night and early Sunday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, with overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. A few of our valley locations could see temps dip into the upper 40s each night. Temperatures will warm a bit by Friday as readings rise into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Mainly lower 80s are expected by Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Impacts/Confidence: - High confidence in two or more waves of thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday afternoon and evening, medium confidence in specific timing. - Medium to high confidence in gusty southerly winds Sunday afternoon Discussion... Sfc boundary draped near the Ohio River, with light easterly winds to the north and some moisture pooling just to the south. Front will begin to lift northward as a warm front overnight, with some concern about fog toward morning, mainly at LEX. However, with cloud cover, and the boundary layer trying to mix a bit before sunrise, not confident enough to include any vis restrictions at this time. By late morning, the first of at least two waves of showers and storms will push across the area from west to east. This convection will be in a weakening state, so impacts will be mostly limited. Did include a PROB30 for IFR vis in the heaviest precipitation. Once the first impulse moves through, winds will increase out of the south with gusts near 20 kt through the afternoon. Could see another wave of showers and storms in the mid-late afternoon, but not sure there is enough opportunity to destabilize. Either way, expect a break from roughly 21Z until 01-02Z, after which a line of gusty, possibly severe storms moves across the terminals ahead of the incoming cold front. Covered this activity with VCTS for LEX and BWG, but since it will most likely reach SDF first, did include a wind shift with gusts to 30 kt, and IFR vis with the TS/CB mention in the late evening. This will continue to be massaged in later TAF issuances. Suffice to say there will be intervals of stormy weather, but with periods of dry/benign weather and VFR conditions in between. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...RAS