812
FXUS63 KLMK 031038
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Saturated ground, clear skies, and calm winds causing patchy
    dense fog this morning. Conditions will improve after sunrise.

*   Warm and muggy Monday, with temperatures in the mid- and upper-
    80s.

*   Scattered to numerous storms will be possible Tuesday and
    Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
    especially Wednesday. The main threats will be heavy downpours
    and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mostly clear skycover is across the region this morning as low-
amplitude ridging and sfc high pressure sets in. Along with calm
winds and saturated soils after our recent rains, patchy dense fog
is developing across portions of the region. The more impactful fog
will be across the Bluegrass and east of I-65 where the higher
rainfall totals were yesterday. Morning fog will burn off after
sunrise.

Upper ridging and high pressure will keep our weather dry today,
though the break from rain will be brief. WAA regime with SSW winds
will make it warm and muggy, with temperatures in the mid- and upper-
80s, and dewpoints in the mid-60s. A condensed mid-level wave will
be slowly approaching the lower Ohio Valley from Arkansas later
today, which will promote some scattered precip activity across
western Kentucky and Tennessee by the late afternoon and evening.
It`s possible we could see a cell or two sneak into our CWA, but
chances remain low. Will keep a dry forecast going until the very
end of the Short Term period.

For tonight, expect to see increasing cloud cover again as the mid-
level wave approaches from the southwest. We`ll be dry through most
of the night, but will eventually introduce a slight chance (less
than 25%) PoP for our counties west of I-65 by 10z Tuesday morning.
We`ll have a low level inversion keeping us stable at the sfc, but
instability aloft will support a general isolated thunder mention.
PoPs will continue to spread eastward through Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tuesday - Wednesday Night...

The upper ridge axis will be pushed east to the Appalachian spine by
sunrise Tuesday. Meanwhile, lead shortwave activity will impinge
into our region from the west. Models continue to show a deeply
moist and modestly unstable atmosphere working into our area ahead
of this shortwave for Tuesday. The end result should be scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening.
Overall deep layer shear is expected to be pretty weak, so storm
modes are expected to be largely pulse in nature. As a result, the
main threat would be for locally heavy rainfall from slow moving,
but efficient rainfall producing storms (PWATs up around 1.8"). In
addition, localized gusty winds will be a threat wet microburst
potential from any of the stronger storms.

Convection should be mainly diurnally driven, however will keep some
lingering pops into Tuesday night. After PM highs in the mid to
upper 80s, overnight lows only drop into the 65 to 70 degree range.
An early taste of summer-like temperatures.

Southern Canada/northern Plains troughing becomes more prominent
going into Wednesday, with an associated surface low tracking into
the Great Lakes region. A cold front trailing from this feature will
approach our area on Wednesday, and pass later Wednesday evening or
night. More widespread showers and storms are expected to develop
ahead of this front on Wednesday, and given a bit more deep layer
shear we could have a bit higher threat of some organized
thunderstorms (localized severe threat). That being said, still not
totally convinced that the best deep layer shear will be in place in
time. It appears it lags the frontal passage a bit, as the exit
region of the mid/upper impulses is late to the game, and mainly
confined to our northern CWA. Still some time to work out the
details, but won`t change the message much. Wednesday looks to be
the best chance for the the most widespread showers and storms, some
of which could become strong. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be the main threats. Other threats would be dependent on the
better shear profile arriving in time, which isn`t off the table yet.

Thursday - Sunday...

Cold front should be passing by sunrise Thursday. May have a few
lingering showers, but overall much drier in the post-frontal and
dry NW flow aloft regime. Given the cool advection behind the front,
and an anomalous closed low expected to be somewhere to our north,
temps should pretty confidently be cooler heading into late
week/weekend time frame. Looking for highs back in the upper 70s to
around 80 for the Friday to Sunday time frame. Best chances for any
showers and storms increases again by later Saturday into Sunday,
but confidence is low given divergence in model handling of the
upper pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

All the TAF sites except BWG are currently experiencing visibilities
ranging from below minimums to slightly better IFR values. Expect
the fog to persist until around 830 or 9 AM EDT, another hour of
slowly improving conditions, and then back to VFR by 930 or 10 AM
EDT or so. Outside of the early morning issues, expect dry and VFR
conditions to prevail for the remainder of the day. Low level
moisture will eventually find its way to a sct cloud deck around 4-5
K feet, along with a few upper clouds. Look for light SSW winds
between 5 and 10 mph. A few storms could approach BWG and HNB toward
the end of this TAF cycle, however think coverage and probability
are too low to include in this cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ025-028>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ077>079-
     090>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS