266
FXUS63 KLMK 111738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Below normal temps and humidity today followed by a warming
    trend with hot and dry conditions for the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Skies early this morning were clear across the region.  Temperatures
were mainly in the lower to middle 50s, though a few of the valley
locations and typical radiational cooling spots were already into
the upper 40s.  For the remainder of the overnight period, no
significant weather is expected.  Some very patchy river valley fog
will be possible, but widespread fog is not expected due to the
relatively dry boundary layer air.

For today, another below average temperature day is expected.  High
pressure will move across the region and provide mostly sunny skies
to the area.  Mid-level heights will rise slightly through the day
and temperatures should be a little higher than what we saw on
Monday.  Afternoon highs in the 75-80 degree look good here.
Generally leaned closer to the CONSShort guidance for this package.

For tonight, high pressure will remain in control of our weather
with a continued northwest flow aloft.  Mostly clear skies are
expected with lows dipping back into the low-mid 50s.  A few of the
valley locations will likely drop back into the upper 40s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The majority of the weather through the long term will be relatively
quiet with just a few chances of showers/storms by Friday and again
early next week. The other noticeable change will be increasing
temperatures and highs climbing into the upper 80s/ low 90s for the
end of the week into the start of the weekend. Then temperatures get
warmer for Sunday into early next week with afternoon temperatures
into the low/mid 90s.

Temperatures will start to rise through the end of the week as
surface high builds to our east-southeast as mid-level heights
begins to increase over the Ohio Valley as ridging builds from the
Desert Southwest northeast into the central plains. Weak embedded
shortwave trough in the mid-level flow will work along the northeast
periphery of the ridge towards the Ohio Valley Thursday night into
Friday. This will also help to push a surface cold front in from the
northwest and across the Ohio Valley sometime during the day on
Friday. Moisture will increased out ahead of the front with PWAT
values climbing to around 1.40" to 1.50"  providing amble
instability. While the front will be the main lifting mechanism,
shear values look to remain very low and some of the model soundings
show some capping taking place towards the afternoon. While the
deterministic models are starting to hint at a slightly larger
chance of showers/storms on Friday. For now will keep PoPs in the 10-
20% range due to some uncertainty on timing and lack of consistency
from run to run.

Ridging will shift eastward across the the plains and into the deep
south through the weekend into early next week. This will really
allow afternoon temperatures to warm to the hottest levels of the
summer so far. With return moisture flow by early next week. Could
see the development of isolated to scattered diurnally driven
convection for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

High pressure with VFR conditions will remain for the next 24 to 30
hours with light and variable surface winds. Wind direction will
mainly be out of the NNW for the next 6-12 hours before shifting to
the SSE on Wednesday with all speeds less than 5 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
     Wednesday night for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Wednesday night for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...MK