882
FXUS63 KLMK 070455
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Less humid air arrives tonight in the wake of a cold front.
    Beautiful Friday expected with afternoon highs near 80 degrees.

*   Scattered light rain showers will be possible late Saturday
    afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Drier air is working in behind a surface cold front with observed
dewpoints across southern IL into southern IN ranging from mid 40s
to low 50s. Should see cloud cover steadily dissipate from west to
east as the drier air works in behind the front. Winds are also
beginning to subside as the sun sets and the nocturnal inversion
builds in. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This Afternoon and Evening....

A sfc cold front is sinking southeast through the Lower OH Valley
this afternoon, marked by a wind shift and notable low-level
moisture gradient. Despite drier air aloft, lingering moisture below
700 mb is resulting in an expanding SCT-BKN cumulus field roughly
north of the WK/BG Pkwys. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
modest sfc convergence may yield slightly taller cu and a few
showers, most likely across the Bluegrass Region through this
evening. Vertical growth will be limited by a significant warm layer
above 700 mb, and the chance for a thunderstorm is only around 10%.
The presence of this capping inversion has been confirmed by
multiple SDF ACARS soundings. Most will stay dry with temperatures
topping out in the low to mid 80s.

Tonight and Friday...

Skies clear tonight as drier air filters in from the northwest. Sfc
dewpoints are forecast to drop through the 50s, which will make for
a pleasantly refreshing start to Friday. Expect clear skies with
morning temps in the mid 50s to near 60.

Friday will feature continued dry NW flow and upper level height
rises. Ridging will be centered off to our southwest, with breezy NW
winds developing as low-level mixing deepens. Sfc winds will slacken
late in the day. Again, it will be noticeably less humid with sfc
dewpoints dipping into the upper 40s/lower 50s. Look for plenty of
sunshine with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Dry and tranquil conditions are expected Friday night as high
pressure continues to move through the region.  Lows will dip mid-
upper 50s with some of the valley locations dipping into the lower
50s.  By Saturday, northwest flow will continue aloft and a cold
front will approach the region late in the day on Saturday bringing
a chance of rain to areas west of I-65.  Better chances of rainfall
look to occur Saturday night and into the day on Sunday as the front
pushes through the region.  Model proximity soundings continue to
show limited instability across the region during this period. There
could be some elevated instability in spots, so a rumble or two of
thunder can`t be ruled out.  However, the threat of severe weather
is very low at this time.  Highs on Saturday will be in the upper
70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.  Highs Sunday
will be slightly cooler given anticipated clouds/precip with highs
in the upper 70s.  Lows Sunday night will dip back into the mid 50s.

Monday through Thursday...

Moving into next week, dry weather will return to the region.
Initially we`ll be in a northwest flow regime, but troughing will
set up across the eastern US as well as the upper-central Plains
which will result in localized ridging over the Ohio Valley. By
Wed/Thu, the Plains trough will push eastward and push across the
Ohio Valley.  Moisture return ahead of this system does not look
overly impressive and the overall probability of precipitation looks
to be less than 15%.  The overall pattern suggested by the dynamical
models agrees well with the 6-10 day CPC guidance which shows drier
than normal conditions across the Ohio Valley with cooler than
normal temperatures for early-mid June.  Highs Monday and Tuesday
look to warm into the upper 70s to around 80.  Wednesday and
Thursday should see slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the
low-mid 80s.  Overnight lows Mon/Tue night will be in the 50s with
overnight lows in the 60s expected for Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period.
As expected, winds have slackened considerably compared to this
afternoon as a nighttime inversion has set in across the region.
Light westerly winds will continue through a few hours after
sunrise, when stronger winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface
with the help of daytime heating. Would expect to be able to mix
into 20 kt NW flow about 5 kft AGL by late morning through the
afternoon hours, with sfc wind gusts around that magnitude expected.
A dry air mass in place should limit cloud cover to a 5-7 kft FEW-
SCT cu field during the afternoon hours.

Tonight, moisture will start to return from NW to SE across the
region after 06Z, with an increase in mid and high clouds expected
initially. Winds are expected to go light and variable quickly after
sunset tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG