Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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881 FXUS63 KLMK 061914 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Less humid air arrives tonight in the wake of a cold front. Beautiful Friday expected with afternoon highs near 80 degrees. * Scattered light rain showers will be possible late Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 This Afternoon and Evening.... A sfc cold front is sinking southeast through the Lower OH Valley this afternoon, marked by a wind shift and notable low-level moisture gradient. Despite drier air aloft, lingering moisture below 700 mb is resulting in an expanding SCT-BKN cumulus field roughly north of the WK/BG Pkwys. Steepening low-level lapse rates and modest sfc convergence may yield slightly taller cu and a few showers, most likely across the Bluegrass Region through this evening. Vertical growth will be limited by a significant warm layer above 700 mb, and the chance for a thunderstorm is only around 10%. The presence of this capping inversion has been confirmed by multiple SDF ACARS soundings. Most will stay dry with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s. Tonight and Friday... Skies clear tonight as drier air filters in from the northwest. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to drop through the 50s, which will make for a pleasantly refreshing start to Friday. Expect clear skies with morning temps in the mid 50s to near 60. Friday will feature continued dry NW flow and upper level height rises. Ridging will be centered off to our southwest, with breezy NW winds developing as low-level mixing deepens. Sfc winds will slacken late in the day. Again, it will be noticeably less humid with sfc dewpoints dipping into the upper 40s/lower 50s. Look for plenty of sunshine with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Friday Night through Sunday Night... Dry and tranquil conditions are expected Friday night as high pressure continues to move through the region. Lows will dip mid- upper 50s with some of the valley locations dipping into the lower 50s. By Saturday, northwest flow will continue aloft and a cold front will approach the region late in the day on Saturday bringing a chance of rain to areas west of I-65. Better chances of rainfall look to occur Saturday night and into the day on Sunday as the front pushes through the region. Model proximity soundings continue to show limited instability across the region during this period. There could be some elevated instability in spots, so a rumble or two of thunder can`t be ruled out. However, the threat of severe weather is very low at this time. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler given anticipated clouds/precip with highs in the upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will dip back into the mid 50s. Monday through Thursday... Moving into next week, dry weather will return to the region. Initially we`ll be in a northwest flow regime, but troughing will set up across the eastern US as well as the upper-central Plains which will result in localized ridging over the Ohio Valley. By Wed/Thu, the Plains trough will push eastward and push across the Ohio Valley. Moisture return ahead of this system does not look overly impressive and the overall probability of precipitation looks to be less than 15%. The overall pattern suggested by the dynamical models agrees well with the 6-10 day CPC guidance which shows drier than normal conditions across the Ohio Valley with cooler than normal temperatures for early-mid June. Highs Monday and Tuesday look to warm into the upper 70s to around 80. Wednesday and Thursday should see slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the low-mid 80s. Overnight lows Mon/Tue night will be in the 50s with overnight lows in the 60s expected for Wed night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 SCT diurnal cumulus near 4-5 kft will continue to develop this afternoon as a weak sfc cold front drops southeast into the region. Also have a band of SCT mid clouds near 8-9 kft drifting east across the northern half of KY. SDF/LEX/RGA will see this cloud cover with mainly clear conditions from this point at BWG/HNB. Winds will veer WNW early in the period as the front pushes through KY. Cannot rule out a brief shower between 18-00z at LEX/RGA, but mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail. Mostly clear overnight with winds diminishing after sunset. VFR through the remainder of the forecast period with NW winds becoming gusty after 15z Friday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...EBW