Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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572 FXUS63 KLMK 070039 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 839 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Less humid air arrives tonight in the wake of a cold front. Beautiful Friday expected with afternoon highs near 80 degrees. * Scattered light rain showers will be possible late Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Drier air is working in behind a surface cold front with observed dewpoints across southern IL into southern IN ranging from mid 40s to low 50s. Should see cloud cover steadily dissipate from west to east as the drier air works in behind the front. Winds are also beginning to subside as the sun sets and the nocturnal inversion builds in. Forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 This Afternoon and Evening.... A sfc cold front is sinking southeast through the Lower OH Valley this afternoon, marked by a wind shift and notable low-level moisture gradient. Despite drier air aloft, lingering moisture below 700 mb is resulting in an expanding SCT-BKN cumulus field roughly north of the WK/BG Pkwys. Steepening low-level lapse rates and modest sfc convergence may yield slightly taller cu and a few showers, most likely across the Bluegrass Region through this evening. Vertical growth will be limited by a significant warm layer above 700 mb, and the chance for a thunderstorm is only around 10%. The presence of this capping inversion has been confirmed by multiple SDF ACARS soundings. Most will stay dry with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s. Tonight and Friday... Skies clear tonight as drier air filters in from the northwest. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to drop through the 50s, which will make for a pleasantly refreshing start to Friday. Expect clear skies with morning temps in the mid 50s to near 60. Friday will feature continued dry NW flow and upper level height rises. Ridging will be centered off to our southwest, with breezy NW winds developing as low-level mixing deepens. Sfc winds will slacken late in the day. Again, it will be noticeably less humid with sfc dewpoints dipping into the upper 40s/lower 50s. Look for plenty of sunshine with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Friday Night through Sunday Night... Dry and tranquil conditions are expected Friday night as high pressure continues to move through the region. Lows will dip mid- upper 50s with some of the valley locations dipping into the lower 50s. By Saturday, northwest flow will continue aloft and a cold front will approach the region late in the day on Saturday bringing a chance of rain to areas west of I-65. Better chances of rainfall look to occur Saturday night and into the day on Sunday as the front pushes through the region. Model proximity soundings continue to show limited instability across the region during this period. There could be some elevated instability in spots, so a rumble or two of thunder can`t be ruled out. However, the threat of severe weather is very low at this time. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler given anticipated clouds/precip with highs in the upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will dip back into the mid 50s. Monday through Thursday... Moving into next week, dry weather will return to the region. Initially we`ll be in a northwest flow regime, but troughing will set up across the eastern US as well as the upper-central Plains which will result in localized ridging over the Ohio Valley. By Wed/Thu, the Plains trough will push eastward and push across the Ohio Valley. Moisture return ahead of this system does not look overly impressive and the overall probability of precipitation looks to be less than 15%. The overall pattern suggested by the dynamical models agrees well with the 6-10 day CPC guidance which shows drier than normal conditions across the Ohio Valley with cooler than normal temperatures for early-mid June. Highs Monday and Tuesday look to warm into the upper 70s to around 80. Wednesday and Thursday should see slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the low-mid 80s. Overnight lows Mon/Tue night will be in the 50s with overnight lows in the 60s expected for Wed night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Clouds will gradually decrease in coverage and give way to clear skies as cooler and drier air work their way in from the northwest behind a cold front tonight. Winds will slacken a bit as the nocturnal inversion builds in, but will pick up within a few hours of sunrise as the boundary layer mixes out. Gusts tomorrow in the late morning to afternoon hours could exceed 20kts at times. A scattered 5-7kft cu-field will also likely develop in this timeframe. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DM SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...DM