Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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403 FXUS63 KLOT 032342 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms across northern Illinois into this evening. - Unsettled weather pattern continues through mid-week as showers and storms are expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning. - Warm, moist air continues to bring the warmer temperatures across northern Illinois Tuesday, but cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday behind frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Showers and storms have developed this afternoon across northwestern Illinois, as a north-south oriented boundary sits along the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley. Additional development is expected to occur this afternoon through the evening, however it is expected to remain near and west of the I-39 corridor over the next hour or 2, before beginning to shift ne across northern counties of the LOT CWA...north of roughly the I-88 corridor and then I-90 corridor heading into the overnight. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, however most of the activity is forecast to remain general showers and storms. Heading into the overnight and Tuesday, a low pressure system will deepen across the southern Plains before moving into the Ohio River Valley late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will lift moisture from the Gulf into the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon, bringing another chance for shower and storm development as instability once again increases across the Midwest. With warm southerly air flowing into the region ahead of this system, expecting showers and storms to rapidly develop Tuesday afternoon (20-22z) and track eastward through evening. A larger upper-level low pressure core situated across central Canada will track eastward Tuesday, trailing an elongated frontal boundary into the central Plains and deep south. As this boundary tracks to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the chance for a second round of showers and storms will move through the region. The question at hand today was timing of this frontal system, as well as the early convection Tuesday afternoon, this is expected to keep the potential of strong to severe storms at bay overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Drier weather is forecast to return across the Midwest, as the unsettled weather pattern is finally shifted out of the region during Wednesday. Along with the dry weather arriving Thursday and Friday, models are indicating a break in the summer-like temperatures with highs back in the 70s. The 70s then look to linger into and through the upcoming weekend across much of the area, with some cooler temperatures expected near and along the lakeshore. Chances this weekend for isolated to scattered showers and storms at times could be possible this weekend, however the overall probability remains less than 25% at this time. Baker && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Forecast concerns include... Chance of thunderstorms far northern IL this evening. Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Gusty southeast winds Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue moving east near the IL/WI state line this evening, affecting RFD. However, most of this activity is expected to remain north of the Chicago terminals. There will be another chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening but there remains uncertainty for coverage, timing and location, though prob mention seems reasonable at this time. Southerly winds early this evening are expected to turn to the south/southeast later this evening and likely remain south/ southeast for the rest of the period. Some higher gusts are possible through sunset this evening and then gusts into the 20kt range will be possible Tuesday. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago