Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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626 FXUS63 KLOT 241100 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 600 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect several rounds of showers and storms today with some severe weather threat during the afternoon and early evening - The main threats for today will be damaging winds, hail, and even a few tornadoes - There are increasing chances for another round of severe thunderstorms on Sunday && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The area of concern is the severe MCS across south central Iowa, particularly the southern portion of it. The Des Moines VWP sampled a 75-85 mph rear inflow jet. Guidance has not been catching on to the southern extent of this system very well either. While getting ready to encounter a relative minimum of instability, the warm front is going to continue lifting north and provide a more favorable environment with rapidly increasing dewpoints. Even for some areas north of the warm front (far northern metro area), there will still be a hail threat as well. Given the still fairly balanced nature of the system, confidence is increasing that the severe threat will continue to the I-39 corridor and at least to the western metro area. KMD && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Through Saturday... After a fairly nice Thursday with warm temperatures and dry conditions, a quick look at the satellite loops this morning portends a bit of a change to kick off the Memorial Day weekend. A sharp upper trough is working its way through the northern Plains early this morning. Out ahead of the trough is a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms, a bit more potent along and south of the effective warm front, and there are some additional storms ahead of the line as well. The surface pattern is a bit more complicated, with a series of lows analyzed across northern Kansas from which emanates a warm frontal boundary that extends east into central Illinois and toward the eastern seaboard. A second low is across the northern Plains, with a cold front to its south and a warm front across the northern Great Lakes. With time these lows will consolidate into NW Minnesota on Friday. The upper trough will be moving to the northeast, thus the low level mass response will drive the warm front will north this morning. With the warm front lifting north, warm moist sector and its associated instability will likely allow the thunderstorm complex to intensify as well, adding some confidence that this line will be ongoing toward daybreak. There will be some shortwave ridging in the morning. Also, the warm sector will not quite be established across northern Illinois in the morning. Therefore we have at least medium confidence in some weakening to the MCS, and even some lifting to the north this morning. Still, these will pose some threat for some hail given forecast soundings show some low level inhibition may be present, though there could still some lower end damaging wind threat. Things get a bit more complicated depending on where the outflow from this complex will setup, and this will have implications for the severe threat in the afternoon, and what types of hazards will be in play. Conceptually, if there is no major convection in the morning, the warm sector will become established and at least a modest increase in the low to mid level wind fields, providing a favorable instability-shear space. This is where messaging the best thunderstorm, and severe thunderstorm potential, becomes more challenging. In the afternoon it does appear that forcing is a bit more nebulous, more associated with warm advection and shortwave activity and suggestive of scattered festering convection. However, the instability will be the highest in the afternoon, and would be the most likely timing for severe weather. Plus, any convectively induced vort max could put a wrinkle in things, and would certainly increase the convective coverage potential. Our highest concern area is in initially toward the Rockford area and I-39 corridor closer to the better forcing, with this spreading closer to the Chicago area late in the afternoon. Deep layer shear is slightly higher to our northwest, thus instances of damaging winds and hail would be concerns, but anywhere close to the warm front or composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary from morning convection would also pose a tornado threat. With some uncertainty to this location, this threat would exist farther south into IL, which is what prompted the SPC expansion of the tornado hazard in the Day 1 outlook. Also, discrete cells or clusters appear the most likely mode, given the shear vector more normal to the advancing cold front. Finally in the evening, better height falls will overspread the area from west to east along with the cold front. This appears to be another period for thunder getting into the Chicago area and especially south of I-80, depending on the footprint of the afternoon convection. The severe threat is still highest to the west where instability may not get pinched off as early. Behind the front tonight, the upper low will exit northeast of the area, bringing a period of shortwave ridging/surface high pressure. Temperatures will drop back a bit, especially lakeside with onshore flow, but modest temperature recoveries will occur inland to support mid 70s given plentiful sunshine and very dry conditions. KMD Saturday Night through Thursday: Another period of active weather is likely (60%+ chance) for the area on Sunday as another potent short-wave trough drives a deepening sub-995 mb surface low northeastward into southern WI during the day. Ensemble solutions continue to show some spread in the actual track of the surface low across northern IL into WI Sunday afternoon. However, while this is the case, the overall synoptic setup of a deepening sub 995 mb surface low tracking northward into southern WI through the afternoon is certainly one that is concerning for the potential for severe thunderstorms in our area. For this reason, this is certainly a period we will have to monitor closely. The main weather message at this point for Sunday is to pay close attention to the later forecast updates regarding thunderstorms, and in particular severe thunderstorms. The SPC currently has much of the area highlighted in a level 2 out of 5 for severe weather, with southern sections of the area in a level 3 out of 5. The entire day will not be washout, but the potential continues for a couple of rounds of thunderstorms, one potentially early in day, and a potentially more significant round of severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Following Sunday`s storm system, a building upper-level ridge across the Rockies is expected to setup a cooler, but still active, northwesterly upper-level flow pattern across the Great Lakes region early next week. Ensemble guidance suggests that this pattern will act to steer a few smaller scale impulses southeastward into our area for Monday and Tuesday. Accordingly, there are chances (30-50%) for some scattered afternoon showers (and possibly a few non-severe storms) both days. A period of dry (and rather pleasant) weather is expected mid to late week (especially Wednesday and Thursday of next week) as surface high pressure sets up shop over the Great Lakes region. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the low to middle 70s both days under mainly sunny skies. KJB && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Key messages/concerns: - Couple rounds of gusty showers and thunderstorms expected from late morning through this evening. The main forecast concern today revolves around the best timing and impacts of thunderstorms in advance of a cold front that will be moving across the area later this evening. Confidence remains high that the area will experience one or two rounds of storms today into early this evening. However, what remains somewhat unclear to this point is the exact timing of thunderstorms at each terminal, particularly with the potential second round of storms from mid to late afternoon into this evening. A line of severe wind producing thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern NE early this morning will continue shifting eastward across IA, while gradually weakening through the predawn hours. While this line of storms will be in a weakening phase as it approaches northwestern IL after 13z, it is likely (60%+ chance) to hold together long enough to reach KRFD with a period of gusty westerly winds during the mid to late morning hours (15-17z). However, what is more unclear at this time is if the storms will hold together long enough to reach the main Chicago terminals. If they were to maintain themselves through the morning, they could also impact the main Chicago terminals around midday/early afternoon. Due to the increased uncertainty with eastward extent, we have opted to just maintain a PROB30 mention for TSRA in the 18 to 20z timeframe at the Chicago terminals. A second and more significant round of storms (severe storms possible with damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 kt) is expected to develop west of the area this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. There is high confidence (70%+) that this round of storms will move across the terminal airspace sometime late this afternoon or early this evening, but as mentioned earlier, the exact timing remains a bit unclear. The current favorable time window for this later day round of storms at the main Chicago terminals looks to be roughly in the 22 to 03z timeframe. This time window will have to be fine tuned with future forecast updates as forecast information becomes more clear. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago