Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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826 FXUS63 KLOT 081757 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1257 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder today. - Northeast wind shift with a cold front this afternoon, bringing cooler temps and a short period of choppy 2-4 foot waves to Lake Michigan beaches. - Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph Sunday. - A shift toward warmer temperatures and higher humidity remains on track for the third week of June && .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A morning surface analysis depicts an expansive plume of low- level moisture (and implied instability) across the central Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley ahead of a cold front currently extending from northern Wisconsin to northwestern Kansas. Several areas of low pressure were noted along and ahead of the front, including across southern Iowa and within a compact MCV now crossing into northwestern Illinois. With respect to the latter, a weak area of mid-level warm-air advection continues to support percolating radar returns across west-central Illinois. However, a pocket of dry air extending up to about 5000-6000 feet (re:12Z ILX/DVN soundings and observations of cloud bases) continues to prove too hostile for rain, with pretty much all observations of such in close proximity to the MCV. With the circulation located well north of the instability/moisture axis, it appears it should gradually weaken while moving just south of the Wisconsin border throughout the remainder of the morning. With that said, an hour or two of rain may nevertheless occur along and north of I-88 as the circulation moves through. Generally speaking, the forecast for this afternoon appears to be on track. The cold front to our north is poised to surge south across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana this afternoon, causing winds to shift northerly and temperatures to fall this evening. With broken (not solid) cloud cover across western Illinois and southern Iowa, it appears that high temperatures ahead of the front will be a smidge warmer than previously thought and in the mid to upper 70s. When combined with pooling of low-level moisture into northern Illinois this afternoon (dew points in the low to mid 60s), it appears prospects for the development of a narrow ribbon of low-level instability along and ahead of the front are increasing. While temperatures may not quite reach convective temperatures (which based on forecast soundings will be somewhere near 80-81F this afternoon), a glancing blow from a low-amplitude shortwave trough (evident on water vapor imagery extending from southern South Dakota into northern Iowa) may be just the oomph needed to kick off convection within the narrow instability axis ahead of the front this afternoon. Based on the arrival timing of the front, such an axis may be near I-88 corridor (including in the Chicago metropolitan area) in the 2 to 5 pm time window, and the I-80 corridor sometime in the 3 to 6 pm window. Now, with the upper-level jet positioned over the northern Great Lakes and an abrupt change in wind direction expected along the front, low-to mid-level "convective layer" shear will be supportive of rotating updrafts, however shallow they may be. And, with pooled low-level moisture and low LCLs, any sustained updraft may be able to sustain a funnel cloud or a brief tornado even with little to no lightning or precipitation production. Now, this does not look like a tornado outbreak set-up but rather a subtle, "gotchya" scenario with a typical probability of occurrence of 2% or lower. In other words, it is far more likely that no severe weather occurs. Again, the time window during which we`ll be watching will be from 2 to 6 PM in the I-88 and I-80 corridors. Other than the threat for convection this afternoon, a quick increase in waves to 2-4 feet along Lake Michigan beaches is on track along/behind the front (moreso this evening). With the brief hit of winds, forecast wave heights remain in the 2 to 4 foot range and indeed the "Moderate" swim risk category. Updated products have been sent. Borchardt && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Through Sunday: Scattered showers are expected later this morning and into the afternoon and there has been an overall trend upward in coverage with the 00z guidance. Given current precip coverage with this wave across MN, this upward shift looks reasonable and have raised pops to likely for areas along and north of I-80. Still some timing uncertainty which may need later refinement. There will likely still be some dry hours, but after mid/late morning, difficult to pin down when those would be. Areas south of I-80 may stay mainly dry this morning and then as the activity across the northern cwa shifts southeast, best precip chances will be in the late afternoon and early evening. Instability remains quite limited with perhaps the best chance for thunder southeast of I-57 later this afternoon into this evening but maintained slight chance (15-20%) for thunder areawide this afternoon. This expected precipitation and mainly cloudy skies will likely keep high temps only in the lower to mid 70s and once the showers begin, temps may drop back into the upper 60s. A cold front will be moving south down Lake Michigan today and all of the guidance has sped up the arrival of this front, likely moving through northeast IL during the mid afternoon hours and then into northwest IN by late afternoon. Winds will shift to the northeast and depending on where temps are at, they will likely fall further into the lower/mid 60s behind the front. While it may be brief, an increase in winds over southern Lake Michigan will likely lead to a period of increased waves of 2-4 feet and a moderate risk for rip currents. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the mid 50s for most of the area with clouds slowly clearing. Mostly sunny to start Sunday with increasing clouds later in the afternoon. Winds will steadily increase during the morning with gusts into the 30 mph range during the afternoon, especially north of I-80. cms Sunday Night through Friday: Pleasant conditions are forecast through the first half of the upcoming week. An expansive surface high will remain to our northwest at the start of the workweek resulting in northerly surface flow across the area. This will result in notably cooler temperatures on Monday with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows Monday night could even dip into the 40s outside of Chicago. Long range guidance is beginning to come into a bit better agreement with the handling of the upper level pattern though there remain timing differences. The general trend is toward drier conditions through midweek due to dry low levels amidst an expansive area of surface high pressure limiting precip potential as weak disturbances move within the upper jet. It is possible portions of northern Illinois are grazed by showers moving across Wisconsin toward midweek. Temperatures very gradually through midweek with highs back into the 80s by Wednesday and near 90 on Thursday. A frontal passage Thursday night into Friday could bring our next chance of showers and storms (currently at 20%). There continues to be a longer range signal for above normal temperatures and higher humidity across the region for the third full week of June as upper level ridging builds across the eastern half of the CONUS. Petr && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Scattered showers through early evening with associated MVFR ceilings and visibilities - Low confidence threat for isolated thunderstorms (around 20%) this afternoon - Gusty northeast winds behind cold front late afternoon - Breezy northwest winds Sunday afternoon Scattered showers will continue to develop ahead of the cold front as it drifts southward out of Wisconsin this afternoon. While most of these showers will be of the lighter variety, a few may become more robust and result in MVFR (if not high-end IFR) visibilities. Additionally, ceilings will lower to MVFR with the showers before conditions begin to improve behind the cold front this evening. There also continues to be a threat for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon as well. However, confidence on coverage and placement of thunderstorms remains low due to uncertainties on available instability ahead of the front. Therefore, have decided to forego a formal thunder mention in the TAFs with this issuance but did modify the TEMPO groups to encompass the expected window any storms would occur. If storms do develop we will tactically amend and include thunder within these aforementioned TEMPO groups as necessary. Showers and any storms will come to a conclusion behind the front this evening with dry for the rest of the period. A period of gusty northeast winds is expected to develop behind the cold front this afternoon with gusts topping out in the lower 20 kt range. While the anticipated timing of the wind shift at the terminals has not changed, the timing was shifted back an hour in the TAFs to account for the aforementioned TEMPO groups. That said, expect the northeast wind shift to occur +/- one hour of the noted time in the TAFs. Regardless, the gusty winds will ease this evening as directions become northwesterly overnight. However, wind speeds will increase Sunday morning with gusts in the 20-25 kt range expected Sunday afternoon. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago