638
FXUS66 KLOX 212049
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
149 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...21/149 PM.

A warmer and drier pattern will establish through Monday as high
pressure aloft will build over the region. A warmer air mass will
likely remain in place through much of next week away from the
coast with the hottest daytime temperatures forecast for Monday.
Onshore flow will remain in place through the period and keep
night through morning low clouds and fog in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...21/136 PM.

A slow clearing marine layer kept coast and valleys relatively
cool today, mostly 60s and 70s, while interior areas warmed up
considerably. At least some of that interior warming will migrate
towards the valleys and coast Sunday into next week as building
high pressure aloft and weakening onshore flow combine to
dramatically lower the marine layer depth. Highs Sunday expected
to rise 10 degrees over today across the valleys and 2-5 degrees
closer to the coast. The marine layer, which was 3000` this
morning south to 1000` north, is expected to be cut in half by
Sunday and Monday, resulting in much earlier clearing at least for
inland areas. Another 3-6 degrees of warming expected Monday
bringing warmest valley highs to the mid to high 90s, roughly 4-8
degrees above normal.

A slight increase in onshore flow is expected Tuesday afternoon
that will cool temperatures a couple degrees across coast and
valleys but either little change or slight warming across the
interior.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/148 PM.

Overall very quiet weather expected across southwest California
the rest of next week with most of the ensemble based guidance
maintaining temperatures at near to slightly above normal through
the period. However, there is increasing spread in the ensemble
solutions later next week resulting is decreasing confidence in
the forecast. None of the solutions show rain south of the Bay
area, but there are some solutions with a deeper trough along the
West Coast Thu-Sat with cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1755Z.

At 1611Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3800 feet with a temp of 20 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. There is a 10%
chance for LIFR cigs/vsbys at KPRB between 10Z and 15Z.

Moderate confidence in KLAX, KLGB, KSMO, KBUR, and KVNY. There is
a 10-20% chance that KLAX, KSMO, and/or KLGB do not clear this
afternoon. There is a 20% chance for LIFR cigs at KLAX/KSMO and a
30% chance at KBUR/KVNY between 07Z and 16Z. There is a chance
cigs may arrive +/- 2 hours from current fcst.

Moderate confidence for remaining TAF sites. There is a 30% chance
KSBA, KOXR, and/or KCMA do not clear this afternoon. There is a
chance for VLIFR cigs/vsbys at KSMX (40%) and KSBP (20%) between
05Z and 16Z. Minimum flight cat may be off +/- 1 cat at all sites
once cigs arrive, and arrival of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours from
current fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that
clouds do not clear this afternoon. There is a 20% chance for
OVC003-OVC005 between 07Z and 16Z. There is a 10% chance cigs
scatter by 17Z Sunday. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance at
of cigs OVC002-OVC005 between 07Z and 16Z and vsbys between 1SM
and 3SM. There is a 20% chance cigs arrive +/- 2 hours from
current fcst.

&&

.MARINE...21/117 PM.

For the Outer Waters (Central Coast south to San Nicolas
Island), moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level thru Wednesday, except for
a 30-40% chance for low end SCA level wind gusts near Pt
Conception Sunday evening thru late night. Then there a 30-50%
chance of SCA level wind gusts beginning late Wednesday afternoon
and evening, then higher confidence for Thursday and Friday, which
will also lead to building steep seas.

For the inner waters along the Central coast, high confidence in
conds remaining below advisory levels through early Thursday, with
moderate confidence in increasing winds in the afternoon Thursday
and Friday.

For the Inner waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
Wednesday. There is a 20-30% chance of local low end SCA gusts in
the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and the San
Pedro Channel Sunday afternoon. Additionally, there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds across the western portions Wednesday
thru Friday in the afternoon thru evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox