Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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430 FXUS66 KLOX 301817 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1117 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...30/945 AM. A slight warming trend will occur through Friday as onshore flow decreases beneath weak high pressure aloft. Warming will be most pronounced away from the coast, but closer to the coast, low clouds will continue to hug the beaches each afternoon and evening and keep the coast near persistence. A deeper marine layer depth will bring cooler temperatures over the weekend as onshore flow strengthens. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...30/954 AM. ***UPDATE*** Weaker onshore flow today and a shallower marine layer will promote earlier clearing of the marine layer in the valleys and warmer temperatures there as well. Along the Central Coast it`s already clear there and some light northeast flow combined with a full day of sunshine will warm temps there as well. Temperatures are already trending 4-8 degrees above yesterday in both those areas as well as the interior areas. Along the coast south of Pt Conception a weak eddy circulation continues to spin and maintain a solid marine layer presence. Low clouds should clear to within a mile or two of the beaches by late morning or early afternoon. ***From Previous Discussion*** Outside of the marine layer and away from the coast, a warming trend will take shape through Friday as 500 mb heights climb slightly. 950 mb temperatures warm by about a degree or two across the interior as less marine influence will make its way into the interior valleys. Onshore flow with troughing aloft will strengthen over the weekend and bring a cooling trend and deepening marine layer depth. Low clouds and fog should spread well into the valleys by Saturday morning and likely struggle to clear from the coast. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...30/438 AM. EPS cloud cover means suggest low clouds and fog hugging the coast into early next week as onshore flow will persist. A cooling trend looks to bottom out on Sunday or Monday as strong onshore pressure gradients linger. EPS temperature means climb between Monday and next Thursday. Persistence should be the best forecast along the coast into next week, while a warming trend will develop, especially across the interior valleys. With EPS temperature means climbing significantly between Tuesday and next Thursday, temperatures break away from NBM values as EPS solutions offer up run-to-run consistency in advertising warming away from the coast. In fact, NBM solutions suggest a greater than 60 percent chance of the Antelope Valley seeing its first 100 degree day. If this occurs, this would best the climatological normal date by about a week. && .AVIATION...30/1816Z. At 1728Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 C. Moderate confidence in desert TAF, moderate for others. There is a 20-30% chance that clouds will linger at KOXR, KCMA, and KSBA through the day. Timing of return of cigs may be off by +/-2 hours. Conds will be mostly IFR to LIFR, except possibly low MVFR in coastal sections of L.A. County, KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs will not clear until 22Z, and a 10% chance that cigs will persist all day. There is a 20% chance of LIFR cigs from 07Z-15Z tonight. No significant east wind expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs don`t develop until 11Z Fri or after. && .MARINE...30/831 AM. Moderate confidence in forecast. In the outer waters, fairly large and steep seas are at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. SCA level winds will overspread much of the waters by afternoon, then continue into late tonight. There is 30% chance of SCA level winds Fri/Fri night in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). SCA level winds/seas are likely (70-80% chance) across much of the outer waters Sat thru Mon. In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, seas were large and steep enough to be at SCA levels this morning. SCA level NW winds are likely (60-70% chance) this afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected late tonight thru Sat morning. SCA level winds are likely (60-70%) chance during the afternoon/eve hours Sat thru Mon. In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds in western portion of the SBA Channel in the afternoon/eve hours today, Sat and Sun. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Hall AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox