711
FXUS66 KLOX 282122
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
222 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...28/151 PM.

Increasing northerly flow this week is expected to cause earlier
and more complete clearing of the marine layer, leading to
slightly warmer temperatures and more afternoon sunshine. Breezy
northerly winds will develop across southern Santa Barbara County
and some interior areas each afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...28/201 PM.

A trough passing through the Pac NW today will generate some
northerly flow across the western and northern part of the area
the next couple days. The main impacts from this will be some
gusty winds across the outer coastal waters as well as the coastal
areas from the Central Coast through southwest Santa Barbara
County. Some warming is expected as well, mainly inland areas, as
high pressure develops behind the trough and heights rise. Winds
may approach low end advisory levels, mainly across southwest
Santa Barbara County as the winds flow up an over the mountains
and down through the canyons and passes along the south coast.

Another tangential impact will likely be decreasing marine layer
stratus along the Central Coast through Santa Barbara and a
shallower and earlier clearing marine layer elsewhere. There will
still be a weak eddy circulation over the southern coastal waters
that will maintain a solid cloud cover but it will likely clear
earlier in the day and not return until after midnight in most
areas. Some warming is expected as well, however, a cool sea
breeze is still expected each afternoon near the coast which will
cap any warming there to just a couple degrees at most over the
next few days. Most valleys should top out in the low to mid 80s

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...28/221 PM.

Troughing will return later in the week and especially over the
weekend which will increase onshore flow to the east and weaken
the northerly flow over the outer waters. This will lead to a
deepening and longer lasting marine layer through the weekend as
well as cooling temperatures.

Many ensemble solutions are indicating building high pressure
early next week, but mainly north and east of southwest
California. Most of the NAEFS gradients are still favoring a
rather robust onshore flow pattern locally that will keep our
natural air conditioning going for most areas west and south of
the mountains. Could see some near 90 degrees across our warmest
valley areas, but most valleys will top out in the mid 80s and
coastal areas in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1913Z.

At 1820Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3400 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs, due to
uncertainty in marine layer cloud behavior. Timing of flight cat
changes after 03Z Wed be off by up to 3 hours and cig hgts could
be off by as much as 300 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, due to uncertainty in timing
of flight cat changes. There is a 30% chance that OVC008-BKN025
cigs will persist all afternoon, and 40% chance of a couple hours
of BKN015-BKN025 cig early tonight before lowering to around
OVC008. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 6 to 8
kt 08Z-16Z Wed.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be
off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 15% chance that cigs will be a
category lower than forecasted from 09-14Z, and a 30% chance of
BKN010 or high cigs through the period.

&&

.MARINE...28/152 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

In the outer waters, winds and seas are at Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels. Winds are expected to increase to low-end gales in
the northern two zones (PZZ670/673) late this afternoon, and in
the southern zone (PZZ676) this evening, with the strongest winds
in western portions of these zones. Gales are expected to continue
thru late Wed night, though they may drop below gale force at
times, particularly during the morning. Overall confidence in
gales is 70-80% in northern zones, and 60% in the southern zone.
If wind do not reach gale force, the will be strong SCA levels
thru Wed night. SCA level winds will likely continue Thu/Thu
night, and while winds should drop off, seas may remain close to
SCA levels Fri thru Sat.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) this
afternoon/eve, and again Wed afternoon/eve. SCA level seas are likely
Wed night thu Thu night, and there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level
winds Thu afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Fri thru Sat.

In the southern inner waters, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) in
western portions of the SBA Channel late this afternoon thru late
tonight, and again late Wed afternoon thru late Wed night. There
is 20-30% chance of gales in western portions of the SBA Channel
late Wed afternoon/Wed night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones
      670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox