717
FXUS66 KLOX 281637
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
937 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...28/923 AM.

Increasing northerly flow this week is expected to cause earlier
and more complete clearing of the marine layer, leading to
slightly warmer temperatures and more afternoon sunshine. Breezy
northerly winds will develop across southern Santa Barbara County
and some interior areas each afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...28/936 AM.

***UPDATE***

Northerly flow will be increasing this week resulting in faster
clearing of the marine layer. And there`s at 60-70% chance that
most of the Central Coast will be stratus free after today. This
northerly will also generate some breezy, possibly low end wind
advisory winds across southwest Santa Barbara County the next
couple afternoons and evenings.

However, gradients to the east remain seasonably strong, so there
will still be a strong onshore flow of cool ocean air that will
keep temperatures near the coast on the cooler side. And a weak
but persistent eddy circulation south of Pt Conception should keep
stratus in the daily forecast at least across Ventura and LA
Counties and possibly the eastern portion of Santa Barbara County.
Though returning after midnight in most areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

Max temps will warm each day esp inland. Despite the warming the
csts/vlys will remain below normal with max temps in the mid 60s
to mid 70s. The interior (shielded from the sea breeze) will rise
to well above normal with max temps reaching into the lower 90s
across the Antelope Vly.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...28/324 AM.

May Grey will seamlessly transition into June Gloom in the
extended period. The weak troffing and strong onshore flow will
continue through the period. The night through morning low clouds
will continue unabated. As in the short term a few west facing
beaches will likely not clear. Max temps will continue their
bifurcated nature with the inland areas running a few degrees
above normal, while the csts and vlys will continue to come in a
few degrees below normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1314Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 4000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of flight
cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgts could
be off by as much as 300 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that
cigs will persist all afternoon. There is a 20% chance that cigs
will be in the IFR category between 03Z and 10Z Wed. There is a
20% chance of an east wind component of 7 to 8 kt 08Z-16Z Wed.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs
will scatter out as early as 16Z. There is a 30% chance that cigs
will be in the IFR category tonight.

&&

.MARINE...28/829 AM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

In the outer waters, winds and seas are at Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels. Winds are expected to increase to low-end gales in
the northern two zones (PZZ670/673) this afternoon, and in the
southern zone (PZZ676) this evening, with the strongest winds in
western portions of these zones. Gales are expected to continue
thru late Wed night, though they may drop below gale force at
times. Overall confidence in gales is 70-80% in northern zones,
and 60% in the southern zone. If wind do not reach gale force,
the will most definitely be strong SCA levels thru Wed night. SCA
level winds will likely continue Thu/Thu night, and while winds
should drop off, seas may remain close to SCA levels Fri thru Sat.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) this
afternoon/eve, and again Wed afternoon/eve. SCA level seas are likely
Wed night thu Thu night, and there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level
winds Thu afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Fri thru Sat.

In the southern inner waters, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) in
western portions of the SBA Channel late this afternoon thru late
tonight, and again late Wed afternoon thru late Wed night. There
is 20-30% chance of gales in western portions of the SBA Channel
late Wed afternoon/Wed night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox