820
FXUS66 KLOX 281314
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
614 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...28/225 AM.

The marine layer pattern will continue through at least next
weekend. Skies will be mostly clear save for night through morning
low clouds and fog across the coasts and valleys. Temperatures
will be a few degrees below normal through through the weekend
across the coasts and valleys. Breezy northwest to onshore winds
will continue to be strongest each afternoon and evening for far
interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...28/300 AM.

Three days of very similar uneventful weather is on tap for Srn
CA. At the upper levels there will be weak troffing with hgts near
583 dam. At the sfc there will be moderate (AM) to strong (PM)
onshore flow from the W to E. In the S to N direction, however,
there will only be weak flow.

This pattern will bring a very typical May Grey pattern with night
through morning low clouds fog reaching across the coasts and over
most of the vlys. Clearing will be slower than usual and a few
west facing beaches may see very slow or no clearing.

The strong W to E gradient will produce gusty winds in the
afternoons and early evenings across the interior exp across the
western Antelope Vly and foothills where advisory level gusts are
likely Wednesday afternoon.

There will also be sundowner winds each evening and overnight as
strong NW winds move into the waters off the Central Coast and
then into and through the Santa Ynez range. Look for isolated
advisory level gusts this evening and strong and more wide spread
gusts Wednesday night. The Wednesday night gusts will likely
reach advisory levels across the western portions of the SBA south
coast with gusts between 40-50 mph range.

Max temps will warm each day esp inland. Despite the warming the
csts/vlys will remain below normal with max temps in the mid 60s
to mid 70s. The interior (shielded from the sea breeze) will rise
to well above normal with max temps reaching into the lower 90s
across the Antelope Vly.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...28/324 AM.

May Grey will seamlessly transition into June Gloom in the
extended period. The weak troffing and strong onshore flow will
continue through the period. The night through morning low clouds
will continue unabated. As in the short term a few west facing
beaches will likely not clear. Max temps will continue their
bifurcated nature with the inland areas running a few degrees
above normal, while the csts and vlys will continue to come in a
few degrees below normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1314Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 4000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of flight
cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgts could
be off by as much as 300 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that
cigs will persist all afternoon. There is a 20% chance that cigs
will be in the IFR category between 03Z and 10Z Wed. There is a
20% chance of an east wind component of 7 to 8 kt 08Z-16Z Wed.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs
will scatter out as early as 16Z. There is a 30% chance that cigs
will be in the IFR category tonight.

&&

.MARINE...28/608 AM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

In the outer waters, winds and seas are at Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels. Winds are expected to increase to low-end gales in
the northern two zones (PZZ670/673) this afternoon, and in the
southern zone (PZZ676) this evening, with the strongest winds in
western portions of these zones. Gales are expected to continue
thru late Wed night, though they may drop below gale force at
times. Overall confidence in gales is 70-80% in northern zones,
and 60% in the southern zone. If wind do not reach gale force,
the will most definitely be strong SCA levels thru Wed night. SCA
level winds will likely continue Thu/Thu night, and while winds
should drop off, seas may remain close to SCA levels Fri thru Sat.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) this
afternoon/eve, and again Wed afternoon/eve. SCA level seas are likely
Wed night thu Thu night, and there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level
winds Thu afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Fri thru Sat.

In the southern inner waters, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) in
western portions of the SBA Channel late this afternoon thru late
tonight, and again late Wed afternoon thru late Wed night. There
is 20-30% chance of gales in western portions of the SBA Channel
late Wed afternoon/Wed night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox