Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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270 FXUS66 KLOX 260301 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 801 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...25/727 PM. A gradual cooling trend will continue through midweek as high pressure weakens over the area and onshore flow strengthens. Night through morning low clouds and fog will slowly return to the coastal areas. Temperatures will likely rebound late this coming weekend into early next week as high pressure rebuilds over the region. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/752 PM. ***UPDATE*** Very warm conditions are lingering over the far interior areas this evening, including the Antelope Valley and the San Luis Obispo County inland valleys. Temperatures as of 700 PM were still in the mid 80s to low 90s, except to 95 degrees in the Carrizo Plain. The Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory for the interior section will be allowed to expire at 800 PM, however some locations will remain uncomfortably warm through late this evening. Overnight lows will be relatively high as well, with the interior valleys and foothills likely not dipping below the upper 70s. Closer to the coast, lows south of Point Conception will be in the 60s, with minimal marine layer cloud cover expected. However, along the Central Coast there is somewhat more confidence in a shallow marine layer forming, with some low clouds and patchy dense fog near the coast during the overnight to morning hours. Increasing southwest to west winds are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening under fairly strong onshore flow. At the same time, the typical gusty northwest winds will affect passes and canyons in southwest Santa Barbara County, and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. ***From Previous Discussion*** Weak ridging aloft will be replaced by weak troughing by Friday with a gradual return to night to morning low clouds and fog that will venture further inland each day save for possible the Santa Barbara South Coast due to an increase in Sundowner Activity beginning Wednesday evening. Breezy northwest to onshore winds are expected during this time and may approach advisory levels for areas prone to northwest to onshore winds such as southwest Santa Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor into the western Antelope Valley and foothills. Increased marine layer presence and earlier and stronger onshore flow will settle daytime highs Thursday and Friday closer to normals with 70s common near the coast, 80s to near 90 for coastal valleys and higher terrain, and 90s further inland. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/117 PM. We have moderate confidence in the extended period with a warm up as early as the weekend but more likely (70-80 percent chance) into early next week due to a building ridge. Low to moderate heat impacts may return by Sunday with a 30-40 percent chance of moderate to high heat impacts and the need associated heat products for at least interior areas by Tuesday of next week. The ridge may squash the marine layer and associated low clouds back to the coast with an uptick of northerly flow Sunday potentially clearing at least south facing coasts. Southwest Santa Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor may reach advisory level northwest winds around the Sunday/Monday time frame, which could locally enhance warming trends such as for the Santa Barbara County South Coast including Santa Barbara City. && .AVIATION...26/0300Z. At 00Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet and 25 degrees Celsius. Moderate confidence in more low cloud coverage over the region tonight into Wednesday, but generally low confidence in exact coverage and timing. There is a chance for brief LIFR ceilings and visibility at KSBP (20%) and KSBA (10%). There is a chance for IFR conditions at KOXR (30%), KSMO (40%) and KLAX (40%). KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Cigs may dissipate and reform over the TAF site throughout the night. No significant easterly winds are expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through Wednesday with seasonal winds. && .MARINE...25/117 PM. Patchy dense fog will cover more of the area tonight and Wednesday, with a possibility of being dense especially off the Central Coast. There is a 20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts this tonight in the Outer Waters (offshore waters of the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island). Otherwise high confidence in quieter than usual conditions into Wednesday. Northwest winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday. High confidence in SCA conditions for the outer waters, with a 20-40% chance of low-end gale force winds (highest chances well off the Central Coast). For the nearshore waters, the is a 40-60% chance of SCA winds along the Central Coast (afternoon and evening hours) and a 20% chance for the western Santa Barbara Channel. Higher chances on Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken Friday and Saturday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/Smith AVIATION...Phillips/RK MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox