273
FNUS86 KLOX 201612
FWLLOX

ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

ECC029-211015-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Discussion from Monterey...

Temperatures will be right around or slightly below normal for  most
locations today with a warming trend through the weekend into the
beginning of next week, and dry conditions. The marine layer  will
expand inland once again tonight into tomorrow morning,  resulting
in good RH recovery near the coastline and farther  inland.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS) WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL...

An unseasonablY strong upper level low pressure system, currently
centered near Orange County is expected to track eastward towards
the Colorado River by this evening. This system is unstable and will
bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening
over LA and Ventura counties, with the highest threat in the
mountains and Antelope Valley. Any thunderstorms that form today
will have the threat of brief heavy rain with minor flooding,
strong/erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and small hail. For the Post
and Bridge fire burn scars, there is a threat for minor debris flows
with rainfall rates most likely remaining below 0.60 inches per hour
with thunderstorms. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
training stronger thunderstorms locally producing rates as high as
1.00 inch per hour which could cause more significant flash flooding
and debris flows in the Post and especially Bridge Fire burn scars,
as well as localized damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC028-211015-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS) WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL...

An unseasonablY strong upper level low pressure system, currently
centered near Orange County is expected to track eastward towards
the Colorado River by this evening. This system is unstable and will
bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening
over LA and Ventura counties, with the highest threat in the
mountains and Antelope Valley. Any thunderstorms that form today
will have the threat of brief heavy rain with minor flooding,
strong/erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and small hail. For the Post
and Bridge fire burn scars, there is a threat for minor debris flows
with rainfall rates most likely remaining below 0.60 inches per hour
with thunderstorms. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
training stronger thunderstorms locally producing rates as high as
1.00 inch per hour which could cause more significant flash flooding
and debris flows in the Post and especially Bridge Fire burn scars,
as well as localized damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC031-211015-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS) WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL...

An unseasonablY strong upper level low pressure system, currently
centered near Orange County is expected to track eastward towards
the Colorado River by this evening. This system is unstable and will
bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening
over LA and Ventura counties, with the highest threat in the
mountains and Antelope Valley. Any thunderstorms that form today
will have the threat of brief heavy rain with minor flooding,
strong/erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and small hail. For the Post
and Bridge fire burn scars, there is a threat for minor debris flows
with rainfall rates most likely remaining below 0.60 inches per hour
with thunderstorms. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
training stronger thunderstorms locally producing rates as high as
1.00 inch per hour which could cause more significant flash flooding
and debris flows in the Post and especially Bridge Fire burn scars,
as well as localized damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC024-211015-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS) WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL...

An unseasonablY strong upper level low pressure system, currently
centered near Orange County is expected to track eastward towards
the Colorado River by this evening. This system is unstable and will
bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening
over LA and Ventura counties, with the highest threat in the
mountains and Antelope Valley. Any thunderstorms that form today
will have the threat of brief heavy rain with minor flooding,
strong/erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and small hail. For the Post
and Bridge fire burn scars, there is a threat for minor debris flows
with rainfall rates most likely remaining below 0.60 inches per hour
with thunderstorms. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
training stronger thunderstorms locally producing rates as high as
1.00 inch per hour which could cause more significant flash flooding
and debris flows in the Post and especially Bridge Fire burn scars,
as well as localized damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC032-211015-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS) WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL...

An unseasonablY strong upper level low pressure system, currently
centered near Orange County is expected to track eastward towards
the Colorado River by this evening. This system is unstable and will
bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening
over LA and Ventura counties, with the highest threat in the
mountains and Antelope Valley. Any thunderstorms that form today
will have the threat of brief heavy rain with minor flooding,
strong/erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and small hail. For the Post
and Bridge fire burn scars, there is a threat for minor debris flows
with rainfall rates most likely remaining below 0.60 inches per hour
with thunderstorms. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
training stronger thunderstorms locally producing rates as high as
1.00 inch per hour which could cause more significant flash flooding
and debris flows in the Post and especially Bridge Fire burn scars,
as well as localized damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC030-211015-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
912 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS) WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SMALL HAIL...

An unseasonablY strong upper level low pressure system, currently
centered near Orange County is expected to track eastward towards
the Colorado River by this evening. This system is unstable and will
bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening
over LA and Ventura counties, with the highest threat in the
mountains and Antelope Valley. Any thunderstorms that form today
will have the threat of brief heavy rain with minor flooding,
strong/erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and small hail. For the Post
and Bridge fire burn scars, there is a threat for minor debris flows
with rainfall rates most likely remaining below 0.60 inches per hour
with thunderstorms. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
training stronger thunderstorms locally producing rates as high as
1.00 inch per hour which could cause more significant flash flooding
and debris flows in the Post and especially Bridge Fire burn scars,
as well as localized damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$