Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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064 FXUS64 KLUB 171708 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1208 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 06Z upper air analysis depicts a dampened, positively-tilted trough pivoting over the southern Rocky Mountains and into the southern Great Plains, with a well-defined vorticity lobe rotating about its base over northern Sonora. Another weakening, mid-level circulation associated with the now-remnant convection from last evening continues to rotate overhead, where dense anvil overcast will persist through at least the mid-morning hours as moist ascent remains intact aloft. At the surface, the CWA is within the eastern periphery of a weak, mesoscale high where winds remain light and variable area-wide. The southern edge of a diffuse, quasi-stationary front also extended into the Rolling Plains, and the baroclinity along this front is very weak with negligible differences in temperatures. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout the remainder of the period as the backside of the slow-moving trough progresses into West Texas, and the corresponding NVA associated with the northerly flow aloft will result in a clearing sky less the redevelopment of a boundary-layer cu field in the Rolling Plains this afternoon. The quasi-stationary front should dissipate entirely later this morning, and the lack of surface- and low-level convergence will be unable to foster deepening of the PBL cu by peak heating, with mid-level warming also shunting vertical development. Light winds will begin to back to the south by this evening as a diffuse surface trough evolves across eastern New Mexico, with temperatures peaking in the lower 80s area-wide followed by a clear and cool night. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 The shift to a period of hot and dry weather begins in earnest on Saturday upper level ridging moves overhead. A fairly broad upper trough over much of the western CONUS will attempt to break the ridge down some but proggs suggest to little affect. Southwesterly mid to upper level is progged over the area with the ridge axis shifting to the east of the forecast area, but geopotential heights look to remain steady while thicknesses increase some due to lee surface trough development. Add in breezy south to southwest winds and 850 mb hot, dry air moving overhead and the recipe is set for temperatures approaching upper 90s to near 100 Sunday and Monday. Some reversion toward, but not quite to normal will begin on Tuesday as some of the energy in the western CONUS trough ejects across the central Plains. Decreasing heights and thicknesses on Tuesday will begin that shift with further cooling on Wednesday and Thursday in a post-frontal environment behind a cold front that will move through the forecast area Tuesday night. Warm mid level temperatures will keep a lid on precipitation chances through the period with the possible exception of late Thursday across eastern zones with some hint at the dryline moving across the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will swing around more to the south tonight but speeds will be light. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...01