Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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841 FXUS64 KLUB 142324 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of an upper-level shortwave trough located over the Four Corners region. This feature is expected to move eastward into the Texas Panhandle by Saturday morning, causing difluence aloft as it passes over the CWA. This afternoon, southeasterly surface flow has sustained dewpoints in the low 60s across the South Plains and upper 60s to low 70s in the Rolling Plains. Thunderstorms have already begun to fire in eastern New Mexico due to upslope flow, but weak steering flow should keep this convection out of the forecast area until the evening hours. The environment by this evening in the far southwest TXPH is favorable for sustaining these thunderstorms. 0Z soundings there show minimal inhibition and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, with an inverted-v signature in the boundary layer. Thus, storms that move into the forecast area this evening and overnight carry the potential to be severe, with the most likely hazard being severe wind gusts up to 60 mph. Weak steering flow also implies a heavy rainfall potential with these storms. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will range from the low 60s to the low 70s, with the higher lows across the Rolling Plains. Saturday should be similar to today`s weather, with south-southeastward surface flow keeping dewpoints in the 60s and high temperatures in the 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms returns near the end of the short term period for the northern South Plains and far southeastern TXPH as surface moisture and difluence aloft create a similar environment to this evening. More information is provided in the long term discussion below. /DF && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The long term forecast remains on track this afternoon with very warm temperatures continuing through the period. An upper level shortwave trough will begin to scoot across the central High Plains Saturday afternoon from the Desert Southwest region, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances. Thereafter, upper level ridging will quickly return overhead influencing warm and dry conditions Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday, a deepening low across the Intermountain West will begin to push the upper level ridge eastward out of the region with cooler and wetter conditions following. Decent moisture return is expected Saturday as low to mid level southerly flow advects gulf moisture into the region, evident by a 700mb theta-e ridge axis extending along a line from Childress to Denver City. This in addition to the passing shortwave trough aloft will lead to increased chances for thunderstorm development across the higher terrain in eastern NM Saturday afternoon moving eastward into the FA by the evening hours. Storms may become strong to severe given MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg, effective bulk shear above 40 knots, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Localized heavy rainfall may also lead to flash flooding with PWATS around 1.25" and slow storm motions. Precipitation chances should begin to diminish around midnight as the trough ejects northeast into the Upper Midwest region. Quiet and warm temperatures will follow through at least mid-week as the upper level ridge influences increased thickness values across the FA. 850 mb temperatures around 25C to 27C suggests temperatures in the upper 90s with even a triple digit temperature not out of the question given clear skies and southerly winds. Thunderstorm chances begin to return Tuesday, as the low to our northwest begins to deepen and a dryline sets up across the FA. ALbeit chances do not look great Tuesday afternoon with NBM coming in below mentionable in the latest run. However, given the upper level pattern and the dryline an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Convective potential becomes a bit more tricky into mid week as the upper level trough continues to deepen and upper level flow increases and shifts out of the southwest. Ensembles suggest rainfall chances beginning Wednesday and remaining across the FA through Friday. Given this is day 6 and beyond we have opted to run with NBM mentionable PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A line of TSRA extending from near CVN to near DHT at 23z will continue to slowly advance eastward through the rest of the evening hours. It is possible this activity approaches PVW and perhaps LBB after 03z, but confidence is too low to include any thunder mention as of this issuance and will amend later if necessary. Higher confidence exists that an outflow boundary will bring a shift to NW-N winds this evening, with winds gradually returning to a predominantly southerly direction by early Saturday morning. Outside of TS, VFR will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DF LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30