Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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911 FXUS64 KLUB 270539 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1239 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A weak surface trough will slip southwestward into the forecast area this evening which will be followed by modest surface cyclogenesis across the Permian Basin to southeastern New Mexico on Monday. As a result light northeasterly winds will veer to east to southeast on Monday with only a small increase in wind speeds. However, no change of air mass is expected, and despite a switch from downslope to upslope flow, high temperatures Monday should be as warm to several degrees warmer due to an increase in thicknesses, especially across the southwestern half of the forecast area. Will continue to run with a dry forecast, although a small minority of model solutions are trying to produce high-based convection along the Caprock escarpment where upslope might be able to overcome the cap. It is certainly a pattern where this is not out of the question, but there is not enough confidence at this point to insert a mention of thunderstorms at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Upper ridging will being moving overhead Tuesday. Despite being overhead, temps will actually be cooler than tomorrow`s temps. This will be due mostly in part to the east to southeasterly surface flow associated with a cold front. Highs will be coolest across the Rolling Plains as a dryline will veer winds to the southwest by mid to late afternoon across the Caprock. Convection is continuing to look highly plausible along the dryline Tuesday evening as a weakness moves across the overhead ridge. Precip chances will favor the Rolling Plains. Storms that develop Tuesday will have the opportunity to become strong to severe with hail and wind as the primary threats. While storms should have sufficient forward speed to minimize a widespread flooding threat, stronger storms will also be capable of producing brief heavy downpours. The ridge will still be overhead Wednesday, but models continue to disagree with rain chances, specifically convection, Wednesday. There is consensus with another weakness moving across the upper ridge, but the GFS keeps precip on the light side with mostly showers being possible. The ECMWF is more bullish with convection but keeps the heaviest precip to our south and north. The current pattern being progged would favor the GFS`s outcome. Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible going into the weekend as the upper ridge pushes to the east and a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the region. The models diverge once again with the upper pattern this weekend. The GFS keeps upper ridging mostly to our west while the ECMWF build the ridge across the southcentral CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. A weak cold front is dropping through the area this morning which is switching winds around to the east but wind speeds will remain below 15 kts. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...58