754
FXUS64 KLUB 191753
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1253 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A couple of features on the periphery of the region could bring some
showers and thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area today and
tonight, although overall the chances for precipitation remain
somewhat uncertain. To the north of us early this morning is a
nearly stationary backbuilding MCS over the northern Texas Panhandle
and Oklahoma Panhandle that is remaining rooted to a stationary
front and in an area of southwestern mid level flow. Outflow from
the MCS will attempt to push front southward, although at this time
the model suite is keeping the boundary to the north of the forecast
area as a warm, moist low level air mass fed by breezy southeast
winds will serve as an impediment to the frontal boundary.
Meanwhile, aloft a mid level ridge extending from southwest Texas to
the Ohio Valley will build northward and westward with the axis
progged to extend from Far West Texas trough North Texas and
southern Oklahoma by end of day today. Shifting to convective
initiation this afternoon, both the weak frontal boundary across the
Panhandle and the higher terrain of central and northern New Mexico
are favored as these areas are along an arcing low level instability
axis and will have convective focus through convergence or
topography. It is possible that the frontal boundary will be able to
shift as far south as the northwestern corner of the forecast area
on its western end with a slight chance mention looking reasonable.
Evening hours will potentially bring New Mexico convection toward
the western zones or further southward movement of thunder and/or
frontal boundary. However, the placement of the ridge could be a
significant hindrance while mid level steering flow will try to keep
precipitation to the northwest and north of the ridge axis. Finally,
will have to watch the westward easterly wave over the western Gulf
of Mexico as it moves inland tonight with the potential for mid
level moisture and instability to reach the southern zones of the
forecast area late tonight. All of these possible scenarios are far
from certain, so have trimmed PoPs some from NBM initialization as
previous shifts have done.

Have kept the NBM inits for temperatures both today and tonight.
However, there is some concern that cloud cover will end up being
more transient and less widespread than models and previous
expectations indicated which would favor highs today overperforming.
This could be offset by the southeasterly surface flow holding in
high levels of moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical moisture advection remains likely across much of the area
on Thursday as the main low makes landfall over northern Mexico.
However, the heaviest rain looks to be well off to the south and
expected rainfall totals have dropped from yesterday. The far
southeastern TX Panhandle may not see anything, while portions of
the South Plains may receive up to a quarter of an inch with
localized higher amounts possible within embedded thunderstorms,
however even those look to be very isolated and generally confined
to the western counties. Showers will gradually taper off through
Friday. A mostly uneventful weekend is expected, with warmer
temperatures in the 90s returning under a ridge. A few showers and
storms are possible across the far southern Panhandle later Saturday
as a shallow upper trough moves over the north-central US. Storm
chances early into next week look to be minimal as upper heights
increase, further capping the environment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Broken MVFR CIGs are expected to continue at LBB and PVW for a few
more hours before scattering out and eventually returning to VFR
by late this afternoon. East winds will also remain gusty through
the afternoon hours before gradually weakening and veering more
southeasterly this evening. Forecast confidence decreases
significantly tonight into Thursday with a return of potentially
widespread MVFR CIGs and SHRA/TS possible by daybreak Thursday as
moisture once again increases across the region. For now,
confidence is much too low to include specific TAF mention of
anything besides VFR and will refine this potential in later
forecasts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30