618
FXUS64 KLUB 210522
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The dryline will retreat back onto the southern South Plains and
into the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle tonight but will
quickly mix eastward after sunrise Tuesday. A short wave trough
aloft will approach the area early Tuesday morning resulting in a
strengthening surface cyclone in the pre-dawn hours in western
Kansas. As the short wave trough moves onto the Plains after sunrise
the surface cyclone will deepen and move off northeastward into the
Northern Plains dragging the dryline with it. This dryline will
likely be east of the FA before the afternoon leaving the FA in dry,
westerly surface winds. Deep boundary layer mixing will occur in the
wake of the dryline up to roughly 650mb or so. In the morning
hours, winds at this level will be ripping around 40-50kt from the
southwest. However, as mixing increases, these wind maxima aloft
will be moving east with much less westerly winds aloft in the
afternoon. Wind speeds will therefore be breezy but not be able to
reach the potential of the strong winds aloft in the morning. As
cyclonic flow aloft continues on Tuesday, additional surface lee
cyclogenesis will occur across northeastern New Mexico. Lower
heights tomorrow will bring cooler temperatures but will still be
well above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A series of upper level shortwaves will propagate through the base
of a longwave trough on Wednesday. This combined with the passage
surface cold front should be enough to drive shower and thunderstorm
activity over portions of the area. Models show the instability axis
generally sitting along the southern Rolling Plains and the latest
PoP forecast reflects higher chances there. In any case, much of the
threat will be off to the east of the CWA. A dryline will develop
from west to east on Thursday morning. Potentially high dewpoints in
the mid-to-upper 60s may remain off the Caprock into through early
Thursday afternoon. Given the expected higher instability values,
any storms that form in this area may become severe. This all said,
forcing parameters remain unimpressive and uncertainly still remains
with regards to how and where the aforementioned airmasses will
interact and the forecast will likely be more fine-tuned going
forward. A dry, westerly/southwesterly flow will bring a return of
hot and dry conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. A Pacific cold
front will sweep eastward across the area Wednesday morning with
breezy and gusty west winds at the terminals until sunset when
winds will diminish and back to south.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07