777
FXUS64 KLUB 041147
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Patchy fog across portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and
northern South and Rolling Plains will begin to clear out by mid-
morning as the sun rises and temperatures warm. The upper trough
will pass over the Plains this afternoon with a shortwave trough
over the area. By this evening, northwest flow will persist aloft as
the upper ridge builds into the southwest CONUS. Surface
cyclogenesis will deepen over the Texas Panhandle this morning with
warm downsloping westerly surface winds across much of the forecast
area. Thus, temperatures will quickly warm this morning with highs
expected to reach the lower triple digits across the southern
portions of the South and Rolling Plains. Meanwhile, as the surface
low dives south through the afternoon, a shallow cold front will
help to keep temperatures across the far southern Texas Panhandle
and northern portions of the South and Rolling Plains below triple
digits in the mid to upper 90s. Surface winds will turn to the north
northeast behind the frontal passage with low level moisture
wrapping around the eastern and north sides of the low. Therefore,
dewpoints will range in the upper 50s to 60s across the far
southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. With hot
temperatures and increased low level moisture, along with subtle
lift along the frontal passage and passing shortwave aloft, there is
a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop this
afternoon and early evening across the aforementioned area. Similar
to yesterday, the biggest caveat in storms sustaining growth will be
the slightly warmer air aloft. However, with warming surface
temperatures and the passing frontal boundary this inversion should
begin to erode away by the afternoon hours. If a storm or two can
develop, MLCAPE supports a buoyant atmosphere with enough bulk shear
to support a supercell. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be
the main threats with any storm that develops. Given the highly
conditional environment this afternoon, the potential that all
factors play out perfectly for storms to initiate remains low.
Thus, PoPs of 10 percent were maintained this afternoon to
reflect the low likelihood of an isolated storm across the far
southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Wednesday is still shaping up to be a few degrees cooler than today
as easterly surface flow continues in the wake of the earlier
cool front. This will also allow considerably more moisture to
persist in the low levels as surface dewpoints remain in the 50s
and 60s Wednesday afternoon over most of the region. Even so,
storm chances will stay near zero on Wednesday as warm midlevels
prevent any meaningful convective development. By Thursday, upper
level ridging will be firmly established to our west, although
flow aloft is still progged to remain weak through at least
Friday. With residual moisture trapped beneath the ridge, a weaker
midlevel cap, and convective temperatures likely being reached,
the potential for isolated storms will return to at least portions
of the region on Thursday and Friday. Given the weak flow aloft,
these storms would likely be of the short-lived pulse variety with
the highest coverage over the southern TX Panhandle and northern
portions of the South Plains. The general pattern will trend more
active this weekend as a broad upper low deepens over the Great
Lakes region resulting in an extended period of northwesterly flow
aloft over West Texas. This setup typically favors convection
developing over the NM/CO high terrain each afternoon which then
propagates southeastward into West Texas during the evening and
overnight hours, and will therefore maintain mentionable PoPs over
essentially the entire area each evening/night this weekend into
early next week. Temperatures also look likely to remain near or
above normal through the weekend given the location of the upper
ridge axis just to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The fog is beginning to lift this morning at PVW with the MVFR
conditions likely to return to VFR in the next hour. CDS remains
in LIFR conditions with low clouds and fog, but expecting VFR
conditions to return in an hour or two. A cold front will bring
north northeast winds to all three TAF sites. An isolated
thunderstorm or two is possible at CDS this afternoon and
evening, but the overall probability was too low for mention in
this TAF issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11