Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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909 FXUS64 KLUB 292347 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 647 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of today. Cloud cover will build over much of the area limiting instability. An upper shortwave will track across the Panhandle later tonight through early Thursday morning. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will occur near the trough axis over the far southern Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains for this time period. This reflects many of the latest CAM runs. Given the higher dewpoints, severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, however it will be much more isolated compared to that of yesterday. A brief lull is expected between Thursday morning and early afternoon. Latest models show a dryline developing slightly farther west than overnight runs. Temperatures have been increased slightly from the previous forecast as well. High-res model instability currently shows between 2500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE. A relatively potent upper shortwave should provide more than enough forcing to initiate convection Thursday afternoon, with storms expected to develop along the dryline roughly on a north-south line running from Castro through Terry Counties. These storms are likely to become severe as they track eastward with potentially damaging winds and large hail. Tornadoes are unlikely but cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Thunderstorm activity should to be ongoing Thursday night, likely in the form of a MCS moving through much of the Rolling Plains. Severe threats Thursday night will likely transition to damaging straight-line winds and flash flooding. We have low confidence in the convective forecast for Friday. Much of it will depend on the extent of any lingering MCS activity east and south of the forecast area Friday morning and whether or not we`ll see a strong intrusion of cool, stable outflow air back west through the forecast area. Weak ridging in the wake of the exiting trough should keep t-storm chances limited overall, and storm organization, however, with a moist airmass in place, if the atmosphere can recover and the cap can be breached we could see at least isolated t-storm activity Friday afternoon and evening. Saturday looks like the day with the most potential in the extended for scattered t-storm activity and severe weather potential as another shortwave trough approaches the region and encounters a moist and potentially unstable airmass. The potential for heavy rainfall also looks to be present. For Sunday into the middle of next week, ridging looks to build over the 4-corners region into West Texas. This will bring warmer and drier conditions in general. However, the medium range guidance isn`t in complete agreement on how strongly the ridge builds over our area, so we can`t completely rule out t-storm chances at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 MVFR ceilings likely to develop early Thursday morning and affect each of the terminals then dissipating toward mid-morning. Will be watching scattered TS across northeastern New Mexico this evening to see whether they are able to develop into a system that moves across the Panhandle overnight with potential to affect primarily KPVW and/or KCDS. Currently model guidance is mixed on that potential and will leave mention out for now and watch trends through the night. Confidence is reasonably high on TS development Thursday afternoon near or west of the I-27 corridor and have inserted a 30 percent TS mention into KLBB and KPVW forecasts. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...07