Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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700 FXUS64 KLUB 281144 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 644 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 As expected most of the morning convection has developed east of our forecast area. The one exception has been over Childress county were several convective attempts have been made with the activity dissipating or shifting northward. Unfortunately, this morning activity is leading to lower than normal confidence for the remainder of the forecast today. As of 2:30 am, observations don`t indicate a well defined cold pool has been generated near the Red River quite yet. However as this convection continues to mature cold pool generation is possible which would shift south today and leads to the first big wildcard for today. This would shunt the warm front farther south and cause high temperatures to be cooler than currently forecasted. This warm front will also serve as another forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development this afternoon so the thunderstorm chances would have to be modified based on where it settles. Otherwise, surface moisture continues to increase across the forecast area with lower 60s being observed across the central South Plains with lower 70s moving into the southern Rolling Plains as of 2:30 am. Moisture will continue streaming into the forecast area with the dryline remaining in eastern New Mexico through the morning hours. Surface troughing across eastern New Mexico will strengthen through the day this should allow southwest winds to creep back into the western South Plains and shift the dryline just east of the state line. Mixing on the Caprock should drop surface dewpoints into the 50s by this afternoon and with sunny skies high temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 90s while farther east where the better moisture will remain temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Forecast soundings show very little capping remaining by as early as noon today but with limited upper-level support and the fairly high bases (at least along the dryline) convective temperatures may need to be reached before robust thunderstorm development occurs. The environment will be characterized by MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg along with 40 kts of effective bulk shear thanks primarily to veering winds with height. This would support the potential for supercellular development however with the nearly uncapped environment numerous thunderstorms may end up developing leading to more of a multicell cluster storm mode. If supercells can develop then very large hail will be possible although the more widespread hazard at this time appears to be damaging wind gusts. Inverted-V profiles close to the dryline along with LCLs above the freezing level indicate the potential for strong downdrafts. Thunderstorms should eventually congeal into a line of storms as they move into the better low-level moisture however that may not occur until they move south/east of our forecast area. The other concern for primarily the Rolling Plains (where the better moisture will remain) will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding as PWATs approach 2". This round of thunderstorms should exit our forecast area by midnight however guidance indicates a potential second round early tomorrow morning as convection from the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico eventually moves into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Again based on all the uncertainties involved with today`s forecast confidence on this second round of storms remains low at this time. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Early morning thunderstorms may be ongoing during the start of the long-term period across portions of the southeastern Rolling Plains Wednesday morning, before making a quick exit southward around day- break. A very similar upper level pattern will remain locked in place with the upper level ridge and a series of shortwaves moving overhead of the region through the work week. A disturbance in the flow aloft is expected to enter the region by Wednesday afternoon which could potentially lead to thunderstorm development across the FA, with the dryline expected to be positioned somewhere across the South Plains. Although decent moisture and a source of lift will be present there will be a few things that will likely limit any kind of convection from developing across our area Wednesday afternoon. One being an overworked environment with not enough time for recovery as the overnight MCS tracks southward along the theta-e gradient. Second being a very stubborn low-level stratus deck overhead, limiting any kind of diurnal destabilization through the afternoon. Therefore, chance PoPs were lowered to slight chance across the FA. Expect temperatures on Wednesday to be the coolest of the week in the mid 70s to low end 80s as the stubborn cloud deck remains overhead. The upper level ridge will begin to shift eastward Thursday morning with a series of perturbations following in its place. This will lead to increasing thunderstorm chances once again on Thursday with strong to severe thunderstorms not out of the question. Decent moisture return is expected Thursday as low to mid level southerly flow advects gulf moisture into the region, evident by a 700mb theta- e ridge axis extending from the Gulf of mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. This in addition to the dryline positioned somewhere across the South Plains will lead to increasing convective potential on Thursday afternoon. Similar to previous days, the environment will have to overcome the same caveats as Wednesday. If low-level stratus decides to linger through the afternoon we may not see enough diurnal destabilization to erode the CAP; in addition, any kind of remaining outflow boundaries from previous convection could throw a wrench in convective development. If thunderstorms are able to develop an environment conducive of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with MLCAPE values above 4000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates, elongated hodographs, and bulk shear above 40kts. Forecast soundings depicting long-skinny CAPE profiles in addition to PWATs above the 99th percentile normal around 1.5" suggests storms may pose a flash flood threat within stronger storm cores. Convective potential becomes a bit more messy and tricky into the weekend with more perturbations in the flow aloft expected to track in from the west through. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at these perturbations keeping precipitation chances in the forecast through the weekend. With all of the rain and cloud cover expected temperatures through the period will remain slightly cooler in the 80s to low 90s through Saturday, before a warming trend begins to start the new week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Ceilings are bouncing between MVFR and VFR this morning at CDS and will continue to do so through late this morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the daylight hours outside of any thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region this afternoon and evening however confidence on exact location and timing remains low at this time therefore PROB30s have been maintained at all TAF sites. If a thunderstorm moves over a terminal then gusty and erratic downburst winds, large hail, and visibility reductions due to heavy rainfall are likely. Easterly winds may also become gusty this afternoon and evening outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity should come to an end late tonight. With the abundant moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop at PVW and LBB late tonight. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...58