Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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906 FXUS64 KLUB 150743 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to track eastward across portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle. These are not severe, however gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and frequent lightning are possible. Another trailing line of storms over eastern New Mexico should also make its way across the border within the next hour or so. Storms are generally expected to weaken through the morning, likely ending completely shortly after sunrise. The overall synoptic pattern looks similar to yesterday`s with a late-day upper shortwave moving through the area. Although highs in the mid 90s remain expected, higher cloud cover may slightly limit instability moreso than yesterday. Nonetheless, winds will turn slightly southeastward allowing for ample moisture advection into the area, with model PWATs averaging around 1.25". Inverted-V sounding profiles again show that winds would likely be the greatest threat, although widespread severe weather is not expected. All that said, mostly everywhere in the CWA will see at least a slight chance of storms this afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Starting late in the weekend, mid and upper level flow will start to amplify with a western CONUS trough and a ridge in northern Mexico. The increasingly amplified flow will allow mid and upper level winds to back more to the southwest through the week. Additionally, a number of weak short wave troughs will be rotating around the larger scale trough but are generally too weak to be accurately forecasted at this time scale. The mean trough will also act to keep low level moisture advecting into the area from the southeast through the week possibly increasing convective chances by Wednesday. We will see a sloshing dryline from Sunday through Tuesday with very unstable but capped airmass. Low level convergence along the dryline looks to increase starting Tuesday increasing convective chances beginning on Wednesday. Upper flow will also be increasing at the same time further boosting convective chances. Beyond this point, convection in the models muddy up the forecast fields. For temperatures, thickness values will rise early next week slowly increasing temperatures each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Thunderstorms are approaching from the west at KLBB and KPVW. and have been added to the latter in the short-term. We will continue to monitor KLBB. Otherwise, VFR and generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...19