915
FXUS64 KLUB 301200
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
700 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Another round of thunderstorms moved through the area overnight with
a passing shortwave embedded in the weak ridge aloft. Southwesterly
flow will return aloft with an approaching weak trough axis below
the main trough axis across the Upper Rockies. A lee low is expected
to develop across southeast Colorado this morning with a dryline
extending southward into eastern New Mexico. Dewpoints will be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s east of the dryline today. Temperatures
will also warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s with the warmer
temperatures along the higher terrain. Where storms fire this
afternoon will be dependent on the position of the dryline, which is
currently progged to setup across the far southwest Texas Panhandle
and western South Plains with storms then to move eastward. MLCAPE
values will be around 2000+ J/kg with bulk shear of about 40 knots.
This environment will support supercells capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Significant hail of 2+ inches or greater is
possible along and east of the I-27 corridor with storms that
develop. Depending on the storms this morning across the Texas
Panhandle and into southwest Oklahoma, there is a potential for an
outflow boundary to setup across the area tomorrow afternoon along a
line from Tulia to Matador. This area will be of concern for
tornadic activity as storm may latch onto and ride along the
boundary. 0-3km SRH along and behind this outflow boundary will be
enough to support a tornado or two. However, this tornadic potential
is highly dependent on this morning`s storm activity across
northeast New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle progressing
eastward into southwest Oklahoma this morning and kicking out an
outflow. Heading into the late evening hours as storms move
eastward, there is a chance for an MCS to develop across the Rolling
Plains before exiting the forecast area. Hazards would remain large
hail and damaging wind gusts should this occur. Storms that develop
this today will have the potential for heavy rainfall, especially if
an MCS develops this evening. Therefore, localized flooding becomes
a concern especially across the Rolling Plains later tonight.
Tonight, low clouds may fill in across the area with lingering low
level moisture. There is a chance for additional shower and elevated
thunderstorm develop off the Caprock, but the environment may be too
worked over by the earlier storms. Thus, confidence is low on this
potential. Storms should remain sub-severe with small hail and gusty
winds the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Precipitation chances continue Friday and Saturday across the South
Plains region as a series of shortwaves begin to pass over the
region through the weekend. By Sunday the upper level ridge will
begin its track back over the FA which could limit convective any
convective potential possible on Sunday.

A slight chance for thunderstorms remain in place for Friday
afternoon. A moist air mass is expected to remain in place Friday
afternoon with dewpoints progged in the mid to upper 60s across most
of the FA. This in addition to the subtle disturbance in the flow
aloft may be enough for some isolated thunderstorm development
Friday afternoon. However, a few caveats will have to be breached in
order for convection to initialize. If low-level stratus decides to
linger through the afternoon we may not see enough diurnal
destabilization to erode the CAP; in addition, any kind of remaining
outflow boundaries from previous convection could throw a wrench in
convective development. If and when the capping inversion is able to
break a strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Increased
chances for precipitation return Saturday as a shortwave trough
enters the region from the west. With a similar moist airmass in
place in addition to steep lapse rates, MUCAPE around 4000 J/kg, and
effective bulk shear around 40 knots will lead to strong to severe
thunderstorms. Given the long-skinny CAPE profiles depicted on
forecast soundings and PWATS around 1.5" flash flooding may be a
cause of concern, especially within stronger storm cores. As we head
into the new week, upper level ridging will begin to build back in
which should lead to quieter and warmer temperatures through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A line of thunderstorms are moving in from the north and are
expected to impact CDS in a few hours. The storms are expected to
remain north of PVW, but amendments will be made if necessary.
Thunderstorms are expected to move through all three sites this
afternoon and evening with the potential for very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Tonight, low clouds are expected to fill in
across all three sites with at least MVFR conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11