Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
147 FXUS64 KLUB 181110 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 610 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The heat will be large and in charge as a low-amplitude, shortwave ridge shifts over the southern Great Plains today. Boundary-layer mixing heights will soar into the mid-levels as superadiabatic lapse rates within the surface-to-3-km layer evolve by the early afternoon hours. A lee cyclone was analyzed in east-central Colorado this morning, and will rotate southward into West Texas by mid-day beneath the apex of the ridge where a diffuse dryline expected to anchor along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment. Winds will be light and variable as the cyclone rotates into the CWA this afternoon with temperatures soaring into the middle-upper 90s area-wide. The dryline will then translate westward tonight beneath the approach of a broad, synoptic-scale trough emerging from the western U.S., and winds will back to the south and southeast as the corresponding surface low retrogrades into eastern New Mexico amidst cool-to-mild temperatures. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 No significant changes to the long term portion of the forecast period. Hot and dry conditions this weekend will transition to a brief spell of near-normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday before retuning to more heat next weekend. Despite upper level ridging shifting to the east of the forecast area, west-southwest flow aloft and hot air off the deck advecting in from the Mexican Plateau will support upper 90s to near 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. An upper level short wave trough moving across the southern High Plains on Tuesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures while a cold front late Tuesday night/early Wednesday will bring temperatures back close to normal for a day or two. The only somewhat meaningful chance for thunderstorms will come Thursday across the eastern third of the forecast where low level moist advection will supply the necessary fuel should a low-amplitude upper trough be able to erode or overcome convective inhibition. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR next 24 hours. Southerly winds will shift to the west at KLBB later this morning while becoming variable at KPVW as a weak surface low moves into the South Plains area. Winds will then transition to the southeast this evening at all terminals. Hot temperatures are expected today with thermal turbulence developing this afternoon. Check density altitude. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...09