Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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433 FXUS64 KLUB 031141 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 641 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Mostly zonal flow aloft today with surface troughing developing over West Texas. Westerly downsloping surface winds this afternoon will give way to temperatures warming into the upper 90s to triple digits. A surface low will dig south into the South Plains from the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, which will push the dryline farther east. Models vary on the exact placement of the dryline by this afternoon, as this is highly dependent on where the surface low is positioned. The blend of models keeps the dryline draped north to south across portions of the far eastern two stacks of counties (Hall down to Kent and Childress down to Stonewall). East of the dryline, dewpoints in the 60s will be maintained with southerly surface winds. West of the dryline dewpoints will crater towards the 20s across the far western South Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain low despite the very dry conditions across the west as winds remain generally less than 15 mph. Spotty relative humidity driven elevated fire weather concerns may be possible across the far western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle where less rainfall has occurred over the last week. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible again this afternoon across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains. An MCS has developed over southwest Kansas this morning with models indicating an outflow boundary racing southward and stalling from northwest to southeast across the southcentral Texas Panhandle into the northeast Rolling Plains. Between the outflow and dryline, the two boundaries will be the focus for storm initiation this afternoon. Additional lift will be provided by a weak disturbance in the zonal flow aloft. Point soundings near Childress, Texas this afternoon reveal a very buoyant airmass with MLCAPE values in excess of 2000-3000+ J/kg under a strong elevated mixed layer. Bulk shear values are around 30 knots, but increase to around 40-50 knots through the evening hours with the increasing low level jet. Similar to yesterday`s setup, if a storm or two can initiate, the main threats would be very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Very steep lapse rates of 8+ degC/km in the hail growth zone supports significantly large hail of 2"+. The main threat for a tornado exists along the aforementioned stalled outflow boundary. If a storm can intersect and latch onto the boundary, the tornado threat will increase. Otherwise, the tornado threat will remain low elsewhere. The severe weather threat will likely be east of the forecast area by the late evening hours as any storms that develop move east and cooling temperatures increase the CIN across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A broad upper level ridge axis over the eastern Pacific will begin to edge eastward on Tuesday with the corresponding increase in layer thicknesses combined with dry downslope surface flow expected to bring a return of triple digit temperatures to portions of the region on Tuesday afternoon. Current forecast keeps highs a few degrees shy of daily records on Tuesday, but highs will still reach into the low 100s area-wide except for western portions of the southern TX Panhandle. Surface moisture will remain relatively robust over the far SE TX Panhandle near a deepening surface low, and a weak disturbance within NW flow aloft may result in an isolated storm over this region Tuesday evening. However, this potential is much better to our east in better proximity to the surface low and will therefore keep the forecast dry on Tuesday for now. Light easterly surface flow will return on Wednesday behind a weak cool front, but temperatures will still have little trouble warming into the 90s as layer thicknesses remain elevated. The aforementioned upper ridge axis is progged to center over the Four Corners region during the mid to late week period which will result in an overall weakening of northwest flow aloft over West Texas and continuing above normal temperatures. Most guidance suggests a bit of residual moisture lingering beneath the ridge which may support a few pulse-type thunderstorms Thu-Fri particularly over the southern TX Panhandle and northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Although models diverge significantly regarding the evolution of the upper pattern heading into the weekend, some solutions suggest a period of stronger northwest flow aloft may materialize which would result in slightly better chances for evening/overnight storms over the weekend. However, above normal temperatures still look likely to continue through early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 IFR conditions at CDS this morning will lift to MVFR then VFR over the next few hours as the low clouds clear out. Meanwhile, the MVFR visibilities due to abundant low level moisture at PVW/LBB will also clear out in the next few hours as the sun rises and temperatures warm. There is low confidence in timing and location of a potential isolated storm or two this afternoon and evening at CDS, thus any mention of thunder was left out of this TAF issuance. Light south southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots will prevail through the period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...11