Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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948 FXUS64 KLUB 141736 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The weather is expected to be fairly tranquil today with an outside chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The closed upper low currently over Missouri will continue to move farther from the region today with another closed low moving onshore into southern California. Short wave ridging between these two lows will move overhead today which will act to suppress convection that attempts to develop this afternoon. As the upper low moves onshore on the southern California coast, surface cyclogenesis will develop from northeastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle in response by late in the afternoon. The development of the surface low will allow low level winds to swing around to the south area wide. Southeasterly winds off the Caprock will oppose southwesterly winds mixing to the surface on the caprock forming a weak dryline. Strong heating on either side of the dryline will lead to a deeply mixed boundary layer but areas off the caprock will see more appreciable moisture. A narrow low level theta-e axis will advect northward into the Rolling Plains. Strong heating and increased moisture will yield mixed layer instability values around 1000-1500 J/kg but with -30 to -40 CIN still overhead. Low level convergence along the dryline will be weak and given the expected capping and subsidence overhead, isolated convection will be difficult to initiate. If convection were to develop, storms would be high based with wide T/Td spreads with the potential to produce strong wind gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Upper shortwave troughing combined with a subtle low-level jet, among other favorable parameters will lead to the potential for severe weather on Wednesday. As with yesterday, a somewhat later start time (evening hours) remains favored as post cold-frontal SE winds will allow for ample Gulf moisture to be brought into the area, with some models showing PWATs exceeding one inch. A significant morning cap (CIN exceeding 500 J/kg in some areas) will need to be broken though the day. While this is eventually expected to occur, the LLJ is not overly impressive (~40 kts on most agressive models) nor is the forcing, however given the aforementioned moisture, likely PoPs have been retained off the Caprock Wednesday evening. Main severe threats would include strong winds and locally heavy rainfall/flooding. Thursday remains a tricky forecast. ECMWF deterministic went from no QPF over the forecast area yesterday to a significant outlier on the 12Z run, however as of this writing the 0z looks more in line with other models, showing QPF totals on the order of 0.2". Low-level wind agreement is particularly bad as well, with GFS showing lee cyclogenesis over eastern NM and other models keeping winds aloft light and variable. Given that moisture will already be present over the area, the completely dry NAM does not seem very reasonable and thus higher PoPs will be retained off the Caprock through early Thursday afternoon with chances continuing area-wide through the evening. The lack of forcing will further curtail the severe threat though it cannot completely be ruled out. In any case, forecast confidence remains low at this point, so stay tuned for further updates. What is much more certain is a significant warm up this weekend. A drier NW flow building in on Friday will quickly end any lingering showers in the morning. Winds will switch to southwesterly on Saturday, with a large upper ridge axis moving over the area by Sunday. Heights will reach around 590 Dm and correspondingly high temperatures may approach triple-digits across portions of the southern South/Rolling Plains. Hot and dry conditions look to continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR to continue through this TAF period. Some isolated TS may develop late this afternoon near LBB and PVW, but this activity will likely be very brief and coverage is expected to be much too low to include specific TAF mention. LLWS will then develop at all terminals late this evening and persist through the overnight hours before southwesterly surface winds strengthen mid-morning on Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30