500
FXUS64 KLUB 151710
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to track eastward
across portions of the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle.
These are not severe, however gusty winds, brief heavy downpours,
and frequent lightning are possible. Another trailing line of storms
over eastern New Mexico should also make its way across the border
within the next hour or so. Storms are generally expected to weaken
through the morning, likely ending completely shortly after sunrise.
The overall synoptic pattern looks similar to yesterday`s with a
late-day upper shortwave moving through the area. Although highs in
the mid 90s remain expected, higher cloud cover may slightly limit
instability moreso than yesterday. Nonetheless, winds will turn
slightly southeastward allowing for ample moisture advection into
the area, with model PWATs averaging around 1.25". Inverted-V
sounding profiles again show that winds would likely be the greatest
threat, although widespread severe weather is not expected. All that
said, mostly everywhere in the CWA will see at least a slight chance
of storms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Starting late in the weekend, mid and upper level flow will start to
amplify with a western CONUS trough and a ridge in northern Mexico.
The increasingly amplified flow will allow mid and upper level winds
to back more to the southwest through the week. Additionally, a
number of weak short wave troughs will be rotating around the larger
scale trough but are generally too weak to be accurately forecasted
at this time scale. The mean trough will also act to keep low level
moisture advecting into the area from the southeast through the week
possibly increasing convective chances by Wednesday. We will see a
sloshing dryline from Sunday through Tuesday with very unstable but
capped airmass. Low level convergence along the dryline looks to
increase starting Tuesday increasing convective chances beginning on
Wednesday. Upper flow will also be increasing at the same time
further boosting convective chances. Beyond this point, convection
in the models muddy up the forecast fields. For temperatures,
thickness values will rise early next week slowly increasing
temperatures each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR with steady S-SE winds of 10-15 knots through tonight.
Confidence is growing that ISO-SCT TS develop W of LBB-PVW late
this afternoon and spread E through the evening. Inserted a VCTS
mention at these terminals before activity dwindles toward
midnight. Could see low CIGs develop at LBB around daybreak on
very moist S winds, but this threat looks too conditional for
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93