969
FXUS64 KLUB 131900
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The main story for the forecast revolves around the ridge currently
occupying the southern Great Plains which will shift eastward as a
shortwave trough moves in from Southern California. As this feature
moves across the southern Rocky Mountains, lee cyclogenesis is
expected to occur, forming an area of low pressure northwest of the
Texas Panhandle.

High temperatures for both today and tomorrow are expected to stay
in the mid to upper 90s, with dewpoints hovering around 55-60F on
the Caprock and slightly higher in the Rolling Plains. Due to the
surface low forming to the northwest of the CWA and the high
pressure to the east, southerly to southeasterly winds are expected
to persist for the forecast period, contributing to slightly lower
temperatures for Friday afternoon. The forecast is expected to
remain dry into tomorrow afternoon; however, storm chances are
expected to increase heading into Friday night across the western
South Plains, which will be outlined in the long term discussion.

Fenske, Oz, Watson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A mid/upper level short wave trough will move to the Four Corners by
end of day Friday and then out across Colorado and northern New
Mexico. This should help keep alive and organize convection that
develops on the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico
with a good chance that the southern end of the MCS moves across
the northwestern part of the forecast area mid to late evening.
The supporting trough is progged to move across the Panhandle on
Saturday potentially offering some support for any convection able
to fire in a zone of cooler mid level temperatures and modest low
level convergence near the surface reflection of the trough
across the northwestern/north central counties. This setup comes
with less certainty in relation to ability to convect with slight
chance PoPs generally favored in the afternoon and evening period.

Sunday to Wednesday will see upper level ridging return overhead, it
being the southwestern extension of strong and expansive high
pressure over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic while a broad trough
develops over the intermountain West. This will leave the forecast
area along the interface between weak upper level flow associated
with the ridging and southwesterly, cyclonic flow from Baja
California across New Mexico to the northern Plains. This will leave
the potential for diurnally-driven convection near the lee trough
and/or in an area of 850-700mb theta-e ridge axis. That potential
appears to be higher Tuesday and Wednesday when upper trough edges
farther eastward as the main energy begins to lift eastward across
the northern Rockies. NBM has responded with some slight chance PoPs
across northern counties both afternoon/evenings which seems
reasonable given the scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR prevails for the next 24 hours. South-southwesterly winds
will back to the southeast this afternoon at around 10 kt. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09