052
FXUS64 KLUB 091749
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper ridging will continue to dominate to our west today with the
center of the upper high settled near the Four Corners. A weak cold
front currently draped across the central Texas Panhandle will push
into our northern zones by late morning and through our southern
zones by the afternoon. This will help to cool high temps this
afternoon into the upper 80s/90s. The upslope flow will aide with
convective development along the higher terrain of New Mexico by the
late afternoon. Models continue to be in agreement with convection
developing as a weakness in the upper high passes overhead. Outflow
from the storms will push eastward with convection developing along
the boundary, and should move into our western zones around
midnight. Convection should be able to sustain itself through most
of the night and eventually make it to our eastern zones before
sunrise. The threat for severe storms is very marginal, with severe
winds and hail up to one inch in diameter being the primary threats.
Heavy rainfall will also be possible and, with slow forward speed,
could lead to localized flooding. These storms will also help to
cool overnight temps into the low to upper 60s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight`s complex of storms is forecast to be departing the
Rolling Plains by sunrise Monday ahead of cool and stable E-NE
surface flow. Soundings depict a healthy layer of stratus
loitering for much of the day which casts doubt on additional
precip chances considering we`ll be in between Monday night`s
departed shortwave trough and a developing upper low across
northern New Mexico. Opted to shave NBM`s PoPs a bit during the
day for the overall lack of ascent, yet with PWATs holding between
1 and 1.5 inches any little ripple aloft in westerly flow could be
enough for more storms. If any clearing materializes Monday
afternoon, it stands a better chance near the TX-NM border ahead
of the upper low rotating slowly southeast. Models and short term
ensembles are in good agreement with this sequence supporting our
next greater round of storms Monday evening across our W-NW
zones, yet NBM`s PoPs are mysteriously underdone for this
overwhelming signal and are therefore being rejected. As the upper
low crawls southeast to near our NE zones Tuesday afternoon, the
brunt of PoPs will focus along and ahead of the low`s track with
some potential for additional development farther west along the
trailing trough axis. NBM again looks too dry for this setup, so
Tuesday`s PoPs were nudged higher. Monday and Tuesday`s biggest
concern is additional heavy rain and localized flooding from rich
PWATs and mostly weak flow. Heights and temps rebound by
Wednesday and PoPs dry out as a subtropical high emerges just to
our west. This ridge may prove short lived as a cutoff low
initially near Baja tracks E-NE by the end of the week while
bringing low thunder chances back to parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Increasing chances for thunderstorms at all three TAF sites this
evening and into the early morning hours. Confidence lowers with
the exact timing and duration of these showers and storms, thus
TEMPOs were used to convey the best guess. The stalled cold front
is positioned farther south than anticipated with east winds at
all three TAF sites. A few showers and storms may develop along
and just north of the front this afternoon near PVW/LBB, but the
potential remains low at this time. Gusty and erratic winds are
possible with the storms tonight, but overall winds will return to
the east through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11