731
FXUS64 KLUB 130517
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua and New Mexico is
strengthening this afternoon and should slowly build eastward
throughout the period, resulting in rising heights aloft over the
CWA. At the surface, a high is moving east of the CWA today, leaving
southerly surface flow in its wake. Tonight, the lack of clouds will
allow temperatures to cool to the mid to upper 60s near sunrise.
850mb relative humidity guidance signals the potential for low
clouds tomorrow morning moving from south to north across the
Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s and low 70s create the potential for fog in these
areas, similar to this morning`s conditions. The building ridge
aloft will allow afternoon highs on Thursday to warm to the mid to
upper 90s with light winds out of the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A mid/upper level through will bring a chance for thunderstorms
mainly to the northwestern third of the forecast area Friday evening
and northern counties Saturday afternoon and evening as it lifts
from the Four Corners late day Friday to the central Plains end of
day Saturday. Convective initiation Friday afternoon is expected to
occur on the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico and
then sweep to the east and northeast that evening. There remains a
decent chance that the end of this line or area of convection will
move across the northwestern part of the forecast area. Enough
uncertainty exists to keep PoPs below the likely category.
Convective initiation on Saturday afternoon looks pretty iffy with
no dryline to focus low level convergence and generally dependent
upon destabilization due to cooler mid level temperatures associated
with the low amplitude upper trough. NBM is hanging onto slight
chance PoPs for this time period and will continue with them for now
given the uncertainties. Upper level ridging takes over behind the
departing trough and is progged to remain overhead. Warmer than
normal temperatures will result, and no meaningful low level focus
for diurnally-driven thunderstorms will keep PoPs at 10 percent or
below through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Low CIGS and visbys will
approach from the southeast but are expected to remain out of the
terminals early Thursday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01