564
FXUS64 KLUB 130734
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
234 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to build overhead today resulting
in warmer temperatures due to increased heights/thickness values.
Some mid level moisture will be trapped within the ridge today
across eastern New Mexico. A surface pressure trough stretching from
eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle will create
enough low level convergence combined with the hot temperatures to
initiate thunderstorm development. Stronger steering flow out of the
northwest will give this convection more of a southeasterly movement
this afternoon and evening but is still expected to dissipate short
of the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The upper high will be centered overhead by tomorrow with the upper
shortwave/upper low approaching the Four Corners. Models continue to
be in good agreement with bringing the upper shortwave over
northeastern New Mexico/eastern Colorado by late tomorrow night with
convection developing across east-central New Mexico into Kansas.
Convection continues to look possible mainly across our northwestern
zones tomorrow night into early Saturday morning. While the severe
threat is low, some storms could be strong to low end severe with
strong winds being the primary threat. Models are becoming more in
agreement with isolated to scattered convection being possible
across the FA late Saturday and again Sunday evening. Saturday
chances will be as the upper shortwave trough axis moves overhead
and then to our east. Sunday chances are due to another weak upper
shortwave trough passing overhead.

Much of early to next week will be on the breezy side. An upper
trough will dominate the western CONUS with an upper high dominating
the eastern CONUS. Surface lee troughing will develop ahead of the
upper trough and will help keep surface winds predominately out of
the south to southeast around 15-20 mph. While the overall forecast
is dry in terms of precip, there are slight hints of afternoon
popcorn convection being possible as embedded shortwaves move from
northern Mexico northeastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Low CIGS and visbys will
approach from the southeast but are expected to remain out of the
terminals early Thursday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01