638
FXUS61 KLWX 311815
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
215 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today through Saturday
before sliding offshore Sunday. Dry conditions and below normal
temperatures will continue as a result into the start of the
weekend. Temperatures start to warm with increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances Sunday into the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm afternoons and cool mornings/evenings look to continue
into the start of the weekend.

Upper level troughing will continue push further offshore while
large Canadian high pressure builds into the region. This will
lead to abundant sunshine across the region along with
comfortable humidity values thanks to north to northwesterly
flow. Light north to northwest breezes will continue to blow
through mid- afternoon as the center of the high swings
overhead. Gusts of 15-20 mph can be expected mainly east of the
Blue Ridge before the gradient relaxes late afternoon into the
early evening hours. Even with the breeze, high temperatures
will recover nicely into the low mid 70s for most with mid to
upper 60s over the mountains.

Another chilly night is expected with mid to upper 40s mainly along
and west of the Blue Ridge and low to mid 50s further east. Some
high sheltered valley locations could fall back into the upper 30s
depending on how quickly things decouple with clear skies and
light winds in place as high pressure sits overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low humidity and dry conditions will continue into the start of
the weekend as high pressure pushes toward the Mid-Atlantic
coast. The high eventually heads offshore Saturday night into
Sunday as a weak area of low pressure approaches from the Ohio
River Valley. This will allow for increasing clouds across the
area along with renewed chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly west of the Blue Ridge Sunday late morning
and into the evening hours.

High temperatures Saturday will be a touch warmer in the upper 70s
and lower 80s. Winds will turn to the south while remaining light as
high pressure pushes towards the coast. Skies will remain mostly
sunny with just some high cirrus floating through. Low level
moisture increases Saturday night into Sunday morning leading to
added cloud cover and perhaps a few showers west of the Allegheny
Front as weak low pressure pushes east from the Ohio River Valley.
Lows Saturday night will fall back into the mid 50s to low 60s for
most of the area outside the mountains.

By Sunday, upper level ridging begins to flatten with high pressure
just offshore. Zonal flow will develop aloft allowing for the
progression of several shortwave disturbances eastward into the
region. This will lead to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly west of the Blue Ridge early in the day
before spreading east toward the metros late in the afternoon.
Storms should be sub-severe although some gusty winds and hail
cannot be ruled out. Winds will will switch to the southwest
with gusts up to 20 mph ushering in warmer temperatures in the
upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Humidity will also increase as
well. Any convection will wane after sunset Sunday with quieter
conditions expected due to upper level ridging nearby. Lows
Sunday night will fall back into the upper 50s and low to mid
60s.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed upper low will be exiting the area Monday afternoon
with upper ridging forecast to build in during the middle
portion of next week. Dry conditions are expected Monday and
Tuesday. A large cyclonic circulation over south central Canada
will dive southeastward toward the Great Lakes during the
second half of next week pushing a cold front into the area
during the Thu-Thu night frame. Expect an increase in shower and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Shear and instability do
not look particularly strong enough at this time to support a
significant severe wx threat.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Saturday. Winds
will be out of the north and northwest today with gusts between 15-
20 kts. Winds will gradually decrease later this afternoon and
evening as high pressure builds overhead. Winds will remain light
and variable Saturday morning before switching to the south
Saturday afternoon and night as high pressure gradually pushes
offshore. Skies will remain mostly sunny to clear with high
cirrus likely returning to western terminals Saturday afternoon.
More widespread mid and high level cloud cover returns late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Even with that said, VFR
conditions should prevail.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday with high pressure just offshore.
A slight chance for a few thunderstorms is possible mainly at
terminals along and west of a line from KMRB down to KCHO. Some
restrictions are possible in and around any thunderstorm activity
that may form. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both
Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be light out of the north to
northwest on Monday, and light out of the southeast on Tuesday.

Higher chances for more widespread restrictions from
shower and thunderstorm activity are possible during the afternoon
and evening hours Wednesday through Thursday as multiple pieces
of shortwave energy push through. Highest chances for
thunderstorms will be at terminals west of a line from
KHGR/KMRB/KIAD/KDCA south toward KCHO and KLYH.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA level north to northwesterly winds (gusts up to 20kts) are
expected especially over southern waters (bay and lower tidal
Potomac)through this afternoon before decreasing this evening and
into tonight. Sub-SCA level winds are expected through early Sunday
morning as high pressure remains nearby. Winds will become light and
variable tonight before switching to the south Saturday afternoon.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected Sunday into Monday. South to
southeasterly winds return Sunday as high pressure pushes off the
southeast U.S coast. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out due to the bay breeze Sunday afternoon/evening. Better
chances for showers and thunderstorms exists Monday through
Wednesday as multiple disturbances pass through. Cannot completely
rule out the need for a Special Marine Warning for any strong storms
that cross the waters during that period.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST